We take a closer look at the BetVictor Gold Cup on Saturday.
The Cheltenham November Meeting is the first big meet of the jumps season and the BetVictor Gold Cup is the feature race of the three days. It is always an exciting betting proposition and some trends and analysis can go a long way to narrowing down the field.
25 runners are currently entered for Saturday in what looks a really strong renewal. Plenty will be eyeing up their chances to land the valuable handicap.
First and foremost, a key component of any horse lining up is course form. Fifteen of the last twenty winners of the race had lined up in a chase at the Cheltenham Festival the year before. The fact only six of the last eighteen finished last year shows how big a test it is and course form can go a long way in helping narrow down who will be more cut out for it.
Last year’s winner, Baron Alco, had some very strong course form. Second behind Road to Respect at the 2017 Festival who then proceeded to fly up the weights.
Of the runners this year, SIRUH DU LAC’s (11/2) course form jumps off the page. Nick Williams’ six-year-old has been well found and plenty of punters will have fond memories of him scoring last year at the Festival under Lizzie Kelly. He ticks plenty of boxes and his form was given a boost when Janika won well at Exeter at the start of the month. Moreover, Azzerti who was seventh place in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase came out and won last week at Newbury.
Taking a punt on an unknown quantity for this race is too risky and it’s unlikely to pay off. Winning a race at Cheltenham is not imperative, but you would want your horse to have run to a good level here before.
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES (7/1) always seems to have run a decent race at Cheltenham without ever being able to get his head in front. He will have to overturn form with Siruh Du Lac but he has won all three times on his first run back each season which stands him in good stead.
Weights may be something that people take less notice of but it is certainly interesting that six of the last twelve winners were officially rated between 146 and 148. This could be good news for the much-fancied SLATE HOUSE (11/2) who is rated 147 after his impressive victory last month. The wind surgery over the summer seems to have had the desired effect and he could be beginning to fulfil all that promise he showed two years ago.
SAINT CALVADOS (12/1) is this year’s top weight. He won a handicap chase here at the Showcase meeting rather easily. He faces tougher company here but has plenty of class.
It is no secret that the Irish have a really poor record in this race. So whilst you shouldn’t abandon a nice horse just because they are from Ireland it is worth approaching with caution. Joseph O’Brien will have to overcome this with US AND THEM (11/1).
The Arkle runner-up made a pleasing debut over fences at Gowran Park last month. That was his first effort over the 2m4f trip and he looked to enjoy the step up in distance. He is at his best in November too, with two of his three victories coming this month and his other in December. He has a great chance despite the disappointing Irish record over the years.
I wouldn’t be put off by big name trainers who have a poor record in the race either. They are big names for a reason and whilst certain races allude certain yards, if they are good enough then there is no reason why they cannot break their duck. Paul Nicholls is a perfect example of this, who up until this decade had a sub-standard record in the race.
In recent years he has fared much better, winning two races and of course having Frodon, who was just denied last year. This year he has MAGIC SAINT (20/1) and BRELAN D’AS (20/1) lining up for him. The latter was unseated when traveling pretty well in the handicap chase at Cheltenham during the Showcase meeting that Saint Calvados won.
In recent times, Jonjo O’Neill has had success landing three in the last twelve. He has SKY PIRATE (25/1) running for him on Saturday. He ran a respectable enough seventh in the Kim Muir earlier this year. Nigel Twiston Davies has a similar record with three winners in the last eleven.
One of his runners is COUNT MERIBEL (12/1), who should go well. He won at the November meeting last year and produced a strong effort when chasing home the impressive Lostintranslation in this year’s Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase at Carlisle. Runners from that race have a fantastic record here. Of the last seven winners to have a run under their belts, three came from this race. He should be suited to the conditions on Saturday and with his trainer’s form in the race he ticks plenty of boxes.
Another who has already run this season is SPRINGTOWN LAKE (20/1), who is an interesting proposition. After a decent enough return at Ascot last month, the ground and distance should bring out the best in him. Six of Phillip Hobbs’ last fifteen runners have placed and three of them were at double figure prices. His yard are currently in fine form which also bodes well.
A stat that big price seekers may not like to hear is that usually the winner comes from the top of the market. This doesn’t mean the favourite should therefore stand a great chance but rather that one of the top four in the market is likely to come out on top. Only four of the last seventeen winners have returned at 12/1 or bigger.
Of course, this does not mean an outsider cannot win but the nature of the race tends to mean those at the front of the betting (for good reason) always seem to go close. In fact, only eleven out of the last forty-seven winners have been outside the top four in the market. Since the turn of the century, the average SP of the winner has been 9.61/1. It isn’t a race to try and get too clever in. It can pay to keep it simple.
There is certainly an age factor in this race. A horse over the age of ten hasn’t won the race for forty-four years. That is a big concern for SPLASH OF GINGE (50/1), the only horse over the age of ten racing this year. Older horses have a really poor record in the race and that is why it is advised to look towards the younger generation. If we look back at last year’s race all of the first five bar GUTAIR PETE (16/1) were seven or younger. He was only eight.
In all, keep it simple. The horses at the top of the market are there because they are the best horses in the race. The market usually gets it right here and can be worth following. The top four in the market’s record is extremely strong and with extra places on offer it can be kind race to the punter.
This year’s renewal has all the ingredients for a cracker of a race and hopefully it delivers.
All prices correct at the time of writing.
