We've looked into the contenders for this year's Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury.
This year’s Ladbrokes Trophy is not a vintage renewal by any stretch of the imagination. However, that does mean that a wide range of horses will fancy their chances and it should be an interesting race.
Before looking at the runners, some trends (since the turn of the century) are worth noting:
17/19 were aged 6 - 8
19/19 had won two or more times over fences
19/19 had run over 3 miles or more, with 15/19 having won at 3 miles or more.
16/19 were rated 145 or higher
The average SP of the winner is 9.9
Of course those trends are there to be broken but can certainly help when whittling down the field.
Let’s start off with the current favourite in OK CORRAL (best price 6-1). He was last seen pulled up in the National Hunt at the Festival which was rather disappointing. Whilst there may be excuses for that effort, the lightly raced nine-year-old is a rather short price here and even though there may be improvement from him, his price is just too skinny. (8% of bets in the last 7 days)
CABARET QUEEN (best price 8-1) was mightily impressive when winning with ease at Limerick last month for Willie Mullins. She was quite clearly extremely well treated from 126 and turns up here off 146. She is open to improvement again and her price is probably a fair reflection of her chances. (7% of bets in the last 7 days)
THE CONDITIONAL (best price 22-1) (3% of bets in the last 7 days) has been nibbled at from 33s not too long ago which seemed a ridiculous price in comparison to WEST APPROACH (best price 14-1) (4% of bets in the last 7 days) given how he beat him last month at Cheltenham. He is only up 6lb for that effort and I think his mark is very workable. West Approach has come out and won since which makes The Conditional’s effort all the more impressive. West Approach was of course 5th here and is a better horse since then. Although, The Conditional will have to contend with the +145 rating trend, arriving here rated 137.
Paul Nicholls’ new recruit YALA ENKI (best price 25-1) is a very interesting runner. A slight concern would be his main target may be the Welsh National, but barring that he has the credentials to outrun his odds. He has had a wind op since joining Nicholls which could bring out some improvement. He has a decent record fresh and the rain that is coming down during the week only enhances his claims. (4% of bets in the last 7 days)
He has some interesting form with ELEGANT ESCAPE (best price 12-1) who runs here off top weight. He came second here last year but was no match for Sizing Tennessee. I’d be slightly concerned with him carrying all that weight but there is no denying he is a class horse. The form with Yala Enki in the Gold Cup is worth noting. They finished 5th and 6th, with Yala Enki just three lengths behind Elegant Escape. Obviously that was off level weights but Yala Enki will be receiving 5lb this weekend from last year’s runner up. Yala Enki was five lengths behind Elegant Escape in last year’s Welsh National carrying 3lb more too. (7% of bets in the last 7 days)
ON THE BLIND SIDE (best price 11-1) has proved popular in the betting in the build-up and it is obvious why. He run last time out at Ascot when fourth behind Vindication who bolted up, was very solid and he was ridden as if this race was in mind. His jumping isn’t the best and would concern me but apart from that he looks a pretty solid proposition. He was available at 20s not too long ago and I wouldn’t mind having a ticket at that price but I think 10/1 is fair. He has the ability to land a big race but he will need to put it all together on the day. He beat Talkischeap who is now rated 157 at Kempton in January which makes his mark of 149 look rather kind. If he can run to that sort of form then he has every chance of going close. (6% of bets in the last 7 days)
DINGO DOLLAR (best price 14-1) arrives here 2lb lower off than when third here last year but beaten a long way. He clearly enjoys the track and had a decent prep run here. He was a much bigger price a few days ago and would be tempting then but I don’t think there is any juice in his price now. (7% of bets in the last 7 days)
YORKHILL (best price 28-1) is not the horse he once was and it may be your heart ruling over your head backing him but you just never know. I have seen worse 28/1 shots. (4% of bets in the last 7 days)
MISTER MALARKY (best price 9-1) certainly fits plenty of the trends for this race and is another who the more it rains the better their chance. However, you would be concerned with how he ran on his seasonal reappearance. He will come on for that I am sure but will have to improve to go close. Colin Tizzard had the one two in this race last year and he must respected due to that. (10% of bets in the last 7 days)
DR RASHER COUNTER (best price 12-1) lines up here for Emma Lavelle and should relish the ground if it becomes testing. He had a decent prep run for this and if he can continue on from the form he finished last season in then he is a player. He should stay on well when others may tire. (Most backed with 11% of bets in the last 7 days)
BORICE (best price 14-1) has been in fine form over the summer, scoring three times. His victory in the Galway Plate easily his most impressive. He has an 11lb rise to contend with and had wind surgery in August. He has plenty of experience from his days in France and must be respected. (2% of bets in the last 7 days)
TWO TAFFS (best price 16-1) had a solid comeback having not been seen for over two years but this may be a bit soon for him. He does have some nice form in the book though. (4% of bets in the last 7 days)
ROBINSFIRTH (best price 25-1) is another of Colin Tizzard’s entries here and underwent wind surgery last month. He is another older horse that hasn’t actually had many runs. He comes here fresh and has a good record first time out.
REGAL ENCORE (best price 50-1) seems a pretty big price considering he was ahead of Mister Malarky and On The Blind Side last time out. He stayed on well that day and with a third place finish in the 2017 renewal of this race there is no reason why he cannot out run his big price tag.
JOE FARRELL (best price 33-1) will have to contend with the poor record for older horses in this race although Sizing Tennessee did buck that trend last year. You would think BRAVE EAGLE (best price 50-1) is too high in the weights but he is four from five over fences, albeit in far lesser company than this.
The rest of the field aren’t exactly inspiring types and nothing really jumps out at me as worth keeping onside.
History tells us you do not want a hold up horse here so looking for those who will be ridden prominently would be wise. The forecast suggests there may not be much rain on Friday but the ground could still be testing. It could turn into a slug round Newbury and whilst it isn’t the best Ladbrokes Trophy of all time it should be still be thoroughly enjoyable race.
*prices correct at the time of posting
