We have previewed all the runners for the Betfair Exchange Trophy, with some trends to aid your analysis.
Since first being run in 2001, the two mile handicap at Ascot has become a fixture in the jumps calendar and we are set for another intriguing renewal in what looks a very competitive and open race. 16 are currently entered but it remains to be seen how many will line up on Saturday afternoon with the ground set to be testing. Plenty of rain is still forecast and with it being the final race of the day, it could turn into a real slog.
Last year’s winner, MOHAAYED (best price 25-1), arrives here with a very similar preparation as last season and I am surprised to see him available at such a price. He is running off the same mark as last year and I would think Dan Skelton has got him firing on all cylinders for this. He will have to be the first horse to win back-to-back Betfair Exchange Trophies but he has a great chance and I think he is being slightly overlooked in the market. Dan Skelton’s record of two winners from seven runners here is impressive and he should not be underestimated.
NOT SO SLEEPY (best price 9-1) turns up here having made all at Ascot last month and won pretty comfortably in the end. He has been given a 5lb rise for that but he is still improving over hurdles and a rating of 127 still underestimates him in my opinion. He will enjoy the rain falling around Ascot and it should see Not So Sleepy in his element.
HARAMBE (best price 12-1) was a doubt earlier in the week but Alan King is happy with the Greatwood winner and he has been given the green light. It was a fantastic performance when fending off Gumball but I would be worried his 6lb raise may test his capabilities. There is no doubting he is a class horse but at the prices I think there are more attractive betting propositions.
MONSIER LECOQ (best price 10-1) is producing a quick turnaround after an impressive fourth in the International Hurdle last weekend. He stayed on very well and there is plenty more to come from this five-year-old. He will have to overturn the form with Harambe and is 2lb worse off in the weights but I would not be surprised at all if he did. However, he is carrying a top weight of 11-12, and of the 10 horses to carry that weight, none have managed to win.
COUNTISTER’s (best price 10-1) third in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham was decent and he had the beating of a couple in here. He only came seventh in the Greatwood but will have needed the run and was dropped 4lb for that effort. A mark of 137 looks very workable and this seems to have been the target for Barry Geraghty’s ride. Nicky Henderson’s record here will make pleasant reading for those who rate the chances of Countister too. He has trained four winners in this race, topping the charts for the most successes in the race.
OUOI DE NEUF (best price 7-1) and CROOKS PEAK (best price 12-1) finished second and fourth in the same race at Chepstow in October and the latter was keen but stayed on very nicely. The former went on to finish fourth in the Greatwood. Crooks Peak finds himself 8lb better off in the weights now and a case could be made that a big field handicap at Ascot should help him settle far better than his last two starts.
The four-year-old TAMAROC DU MATHAN (best price 12-1) arrives here having raced just twice but his second to Master Debonair off a 581 day break was really promising and he was hardly put in the race. He has been well supported throughout the week, having been as big as 25/1. The money coming in for him would give you confidence here, especially given that he drifted last time before the off which told a story in itself. However, of the 72 horses aged four to attempt to win the Betfair Exchange Trophy, only two have done it. He is rated as Paul Nicholls’ best chance of finally getting a winner here in what will be his 21st and 22nd attempts.
Paul Nicholls’ other entry, also a four-year-old, is SCARAMANGA (best price 14-1). He arrives here after an impressive win at Wincanton earlier in the month but you would have to be worried about the underfoot conditions for him. His only effort on soft ground has been a second last place finish at Chepstow. It did come out after that he lost his right hind-shoe, but you wouldn’t be filled with confidence given the testing ground conditions he will be faced with.
FRENCH CRUSADER (best price 9-1) lines up here for Nicky Henderson after a strong second at Newbury in his first race in over a year. He was no match for stablemate Eptante but the long break told at the end and with that run now under his belt he looks set for a big effort here. He is one of five horses lining up here to have had one run so far this season. Horses coming off one run boast a better win percentage than horses arriving off none, two or three runs. Whilst not by massive margins, it is still an interesting stat.
WHOSHOTHESHERIFF (best price 12-1) for Phil Kirby is another who has been well supported. He fell at the penultimate fence at Cheltenham in October before being reeled in late on at Haydock and was very unlucky not to win. The drop back in trip here will suit him going by his last run and the rain will be no problem for him either.
UMBRIGADO (best price15-2) should relish the ground and the rain enhances his chances. The form of his wins at Exeter and Southwell last season have worked out well too. He has also seen some money come for him, the rain will have been a factor in that.
TURNPIKE TRIP (20-1) comes here after a fourth behind Envoi Allen at Fairyhouse at the start of the month. Only eight lengths behind Envoi Allen and six behind Abacadabras certainly is no disgrace but this may be a step too soon for the five-year-old.
REMULIC (best price 40-1) is very much up against it based on both form and stats. No horse over the age of eight has won the race in 42 attempts and only one in 27 has won having their first run of the season.
ZANZA (best price 28-1) is another from the Greatwood and if not for a mistake at the last would have finished in a better position. However, the weights would favour Countister and Mohaayed to overturn the form.
SIR VALENTINE (best price 16-1) was no match for the impressive Ribble Valley last time out and it will be interesting to see if that form holds up on Friday in the Supreme Trial.
