Andy Holding explains why Longhouse Poet came out best from Death Duty’s Grand National Trial win at Punchestown last weekend.
Writing in his weekly article reviewing the weekend’s biggest racing stories, Andy Holding saved the final word for Death Duty, and why his win makes it relevant to look back on January’s Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park in Kilkenny.
Longhouse Poet value explained
Just to explain this value connection, Longhouse Poet won the Thyestes Handicap Chase on January 27th ahead of Franco De Port in second, with Mister Fogpatches third and Ontheropes in fifth of 18 runners. Coko Beach came sixth in the race, with Death Duty back in seventh.
So, if you’re eyeing up the Aintree chances of 11-year-old Death Duty, cut into a best price 33/1 from 50/1 before last weekend (25/1 in places), you should do worse than look at Longhouse Poet. He has been clipped in from a best price 33/1, but remains available at 25/1.
Andy Holding on his pick of the Thyestes pile
“There are several that are firmly on my shortlist for the Grand National, but out of the Thyestes pick of the pile would be Longhouse Poet.
“I loved the way he galloped out through the line and his time figure was exceptionally good. The only issue I could see with him would be the ground as all his best form is on soft. He's also gone up to 154 which is a bit of a pain but at 33/1 he's worth a roll of the dice in the hope the rain comes for him during the build up to the race."
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Holding continued: “At the other end of the scale, Mister Fogpatches would need to go up significantly from his current 138 to get a run (bottom weight last year was rated 145). He did best of those who raced around the inside at Gowran and, as a result, I marked him up significantly.
“Third in last season's Scottish National, we know he stays well, and he's run a blinder in some of the best staying handicaps chases since. Currently 66/1, if he were to run well again between now and Aintree (maybe at Cheltenham), he might just sneak in towards the foot of the weights.”
Franco De Port gets the swerve
“Franco De Port doesn't strike me as being an out-and-out stayer, so I'd give him the swerve. However, stable mate Ontheropes shapes as though he wants an extreme test. Whether he goes for the National Hunt Chase in between remains to be seen, but if he were to go to Aintree, he'd be of some interest.”
