Architect Tips gives his immediate reaction to the Cheltenham Festival handicap weights, picking out Ultima Handicap Chase entries treated fairly and one given a harsh mark.
Earlier today, the weights for the 10 handicaps at this year’s Cheltenham Festival meeting were published and, with that in mind, I just want to touch upon a couple of commonalities in regard to the positive and negative outcome from today’s announcement.
On reflection of the much-anticipated news, which can often provide a feel-good factor in terms of what we might expect at the final declaration stage, I have assembled a few horses that have been treated with fairness in regard to their initial mark and one that has been treated quite harshly.
Frodon heads the weights
Unsurprisingly, in the Ultima Handicap Chase, former Ryanair and King George Chase winner Frodon heads the weights on 11st 12Ib and has been allotted a mark of 164 which, ironically, is the same mark as when successful over today’s course-and-distance back in October 2020.
It would take another unbelievable weight-carrying performance to win this ultra-competitive affair but I think his mark back in a handicap is quite reasonable and Paul Nicholls’ charge has the capabilities to make a bold bid. He might not be one for win purposes but, at the same time, he looks great each-way value at 14/1 to reach the frame if connections do decide to opt for this event.
Taking the view of the class act of the entries being supplemented in the final declarations, this would certainly make a few other candidates well-treated, including one of the Irish raiders, School Boy Hours, trained by Noel Meade.
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School Boy Hours might have enough up his sleeve
He would be set to carry just 10st 4Ib with a mark of 142 to contend with too. While he’s gone up 9Ib for his half-a-length victory in the Paddy Power Chase, which might seem harsh to some, he looked to have plenty up his sleeve in the closing stages as he produced a late burst of speed to win a shade comfortably, indicating that he’s open to even further improvement.
Furthermore, the undulations of Prestbury Park should really suit him as he’s a good jumper who stays well and has the perfect-looking profile for this race. He’d previously taken on some of the best horses during his novice campaign before entering the handicap scenario and, having gained a much-deserved first victory over fences last time, the nine-year-old makes a ton of appeal at 14/1 with most sponsors, provided he is in the final field.
Gericault Roque could prove ‘exploitable’
Interestingly, trainer David Pipe - who has a good record in this event - could rely upon his only sole entry, Gericault Roque, who’s currently weighted on 9st 9Ib and generally available at 16/1.
Although yet to win in four starts over fences, he’s placed in all of them, including when runner-up in the Classic Chase at Warwick when last spotted. Essentially, the assessor has left him on the exact same mark of 133 for this event, which could prove to be exploitable, as the six-year-old surely has more to come.
It’s highly likely that this race has been his long-term target, especially when reflecting on the previous dual winner of the race for connections, Un Temps Pour Tout. He is also entered in the Kim Muir but this looks more his target and he could be a big player off a mark that’s certainly going to improve his chances.
The Shunter will find it tough off 155
The one that I think will find it tough off his current mark is last year’s Paddy Power Plate winner, The Shunter, who finds himself on a mark of 155, 15Ib higher than when winning 12 months ago.
He was fourth in the Galway Plate on his penultimate outing off 152 but he’s gone up 3Ib since and unseated his rider early on in the Bulmers Secret Orchard Leopardstown Handicap Chase. He may well be good enough to reach the frame but I’m optimistic about this mark finding him out from a win point of view.
CHELTENHAM HANDICAP WEIGHTS
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