A win for Luxembourg in the 2000 Guineas would set him up for a Classics double, but Architect Tips prefers Aidan O’Brien’s other big chance from an each-way perspective.
The 2022 Flat Season swiftly goes up another notch this weekend as we are just a few days away from the first of the Classics this season taking place, with the QIPCO 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas events headlining an action packed three-day card at Newmarket.
Charlie Appleby and William Buick have made an excellent start to the campaign and while he’s been out of luck in the Saturday showpiece in comparison to Aidan O’Brien who’s practically made the race his own in years gone by, Native Trail, the powerhouse of the two-year-old brigade last term, looks to give the boys in blue the upper hand this time round in the 2000 Guineas.
He made the perfect triumphant return to action in the Craven on his comeback here earlier this month and will be set to face 14 rivals when bidding to justify short-price favouritism this weekend.
He is undoubtedly the right favourite (Best Price Evens) and while his flat spot can often be noticed during his races, his turn of foot and the way he hits the line has often left the impression that he’s always got more in the locker if required.
It will therefore take a massive performance from anyone else in the field to lower his colours. That said, with a view towards the Epsom Derby which will take place later into the campaign, it’s another undefeated colt in the form of Luxembourg who heads Native Trail in the betting for the Derby.
Everything related to Native Trail’s breeding and pedigree department suggests he wouldn’t be suited to the 1m4f test at Epsom with speed towering over the middle distance prospect, whereas Luxembourg, a son of Camelot, who was the most recent horse to achieve the difficult feat of completing the double a decade ago, is bred to be more effective over that longer distance.
That reflects in his 10/3 price tag for Epsom unlike Native Trail, who’s three times the price at a general 10/1. A win in the 2000 Guineas would certainly set Luxembourg up perfectly for the Epsom Derby, with his price probably shortening to around the 2/1 – 15/8 mark.
If he doesn’t win, for instance, and runs well to finish in the first four, I can’t see his current price being devalued or increasing for the Epsom Derby either. On the other hand, though, a win this weekend for Native Trail would see his current 12/1 for Epsom shorten but I can’t see him taking over Luxembourg at the head of the market provided his rival doesn’t underperform this weekend.
Coroebus hasn't achieved as much as his stablemate yet, but clearly has potential. If you’re thinking of backing him for the Derby, currently 20/1, now is probably the right time as the 5/1 second favourite for the 2000 Guineas is likely at least halve in price if he runs a big race under James Doyle.
At this stage, Native Trail should win this weekend but I just cannot back a horse at such a short price for a race that is going to be extremely competitive. The one I would recommend from an each-way perspective for both the Epsom Derby and the 2000 Guineas is Aidan O'Brien's second-strong, POINT LONSDALE, best price 14/1 for the 2000 Guineas and 10/1 for the Epsom Derby.
Held in high regard by Aidan O’Brien, who had a tall reputation as a two-year-old, he lost his unbeaten record of four when Native Trail beat him by three lengths in the National Stakes but he was sent off 8/13 favourite that day and has looked a strong stayer over seven furlongs. It's not like he has a mountain to climb, though the winner has clearly improved since then too.
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Point Lonsdale's sire Australia was a dual-Derby winner for the same connections – Aidan O'Brien and Coolmore. He’s a smooth traveller, who appears to have all the attributes to relish whichever distance he will compete over throughout this campaign and the services of Frankie Dettori this weekend adds another addition towards his excellent chances.
He’s drawn reasonably well in stall 11 and while he’s unproven on the course, he seems a well-balanced individual who would probably be favourite for this if he had beaten Native Trail when last spotted. While the market much prefers the chances of Luxembourg, it is Point Lonsdale who interests me most at an attractive price and edges the verdict for this and the Derby.
He appeals as the type to adapt well to the distance of this event and the aforementioned race over the longer trip later into the season so if able to run a big here or perhaps even win then the price tag about him for Epsom might end up seeing him go close to favouritism. I like him a lot.
