Architect Tips analyses the impact of recent National Hunt fixture postponements on the build-up to the Cheltenham Festival 2023.
The freezing temperatures continue to have a major impact on the National Hunt fixtures, with many of the high-profile meetings scheduled to take place over the last couple of weeks having succumbed to the cold weather.
The jumps season was dealt another huge blow as this weekend’s Howden Christmas Racing meeting at Ascot, set to host the popular Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle, was forced to abandon their two-day fixture.
With doubts about the racing going ahead at the Berkshire venue a couple of days ago, the planned inspection for Saturday’s Long Walk Hurdle day (following Friday’s opening day already being called off on Wednesday) was brought forward after temperatures dropped to -7C.
The clerk of the course had reiterated on Wednesday that major improvement was needed to go-ahead. With no prospect of the course being suitable to race by the weekend, defeat was accepted.
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Will we see meetings rescheduled? Is there room in the calendar?
With its cancellation this weekend, this means it will be second consecutive Saturdays without a big-race meeting in Britain.
The second day of Cheltenham's International meeting last weekend was lost due to the track being frozen after the cold snap got into the ground post-race after last Friday’s racing had concluded at Prestbury Park. Haydock and Newcastle were also lost in the frost which means there will be no jumps action in Britain on Saturday.
After the cancellations of last weekend's meetings at Doncaster and Cheltenham, the BHA announced they would not be rescheduling the races that have been lost and, in effect, this means we won’t see any race of Cheltenham’s seven-race card, which featured the December Gold Cup and International Hurdle, in action.
At this present moment in time, I am not sure when or if we will see any full meeting rescheduled for the new year as the BHA defended their decision last weekend by arguing that “there are enough appropriate remaining opportunities this year, particularly during the Christmas period, for the horses unable to run due to cancellations”.
Some trainers were immediately unhappy with this decision as some of the most notable names such as Paul Nicholls, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Nicky Henderson suggested the two high-profile races from Cheltenham’s card could have been run at Ascot this weekend and that it would not damage any initial plans over the remainder of the Christmas period.
In my honest assessment of this, I partially agree with both sides of the party. I mean you could agree in some ways with the BHA’s decision as technically this would potentially disrupt the existing races in the fixture list at various racecourses and, even more so, intervene with the scheduled racing that is set to be televised.
Particularly for ITV, who are on a limited time scale for broadcast compared to the Sky Sports Racing and Racing TV channels and, with this, not all the high-profile events would even make it onto the channel if the meetings were rescheduled as some would ultimately clash with any existing big-race weekend meetings, which would probably happen given the jam-packed schedule between now and March ahead of the Cheltenham Festival.
On the flip side of the coin, from some of the trainers perspective, however, I can see why they must be frustrated, as even if the whole meetings and possible future meetings are abandoned and couldn’t be rescheduled, which is perfectly acceptable if the course has been given every opportunity to race, rescheduling a few of the important races from the whole meeting to elsewhere instead would seem a logical solution.
This would supply some flexibility for connections of the horses who would be using these events as preparation for the Cheltenham Festival. Then again, though, would this really be fair on the undercard races for the trainers, jockeys and owners that was originally the plan for their horses? Probably not. So this was clearly a tough dilemma for the BHA to consider in which a decision was made so all sides are treated equally in regards to certain events being rescheduled and others not.
However, with now another big weekend meeting lost, it has now been confirmed that the Long Walk Hurdle will be moved to Kempton on Boxing Day and might still feature Champ and Paisley Park which is great news as this will mean we will have a total of four Grade 1 events on the card, including the Christmas Hurdle and the feature race of the day, the King George.
What a day in prospect.
Logistically, this is the right thing to do as the timescale would be perfectly ideal as far as Cheltenham is concerned. Some have said the Clarence House meeting would be a good choice but then this would surely be too close to the Cleeve Hurdle and that race would then likely cut up with Paisley and Champ likely to head to Kempton for the rerouted Long Walk Hurdle.
Before Ascot’s card was abandoned I was asking myself, if Ireland can reschedule the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase and are prone to rescheduling their top-class events then why can’t we do the same thing? For sure, I’m no expert in this field and the BHA knows more than me but surely there is a way to solve this and fit them into the calendar.
The more cancellations we get (which is valid) without being rescheduled, the worse this will be and prove to be an even deeper challenge for the trainers who are trying to prepare their horses for the Cheltenham Festival. Thankfully, with the rescheduled Long Walk Hurdle set to be added to the King George card, we are in for a Boxing Day treat.
It’s better doing it this way instead of none of the notable events being replaced as this would provide more disruption for connections and the horses intended to run.
What challenges does the postponements present for trainers?
In turn, all the cancelled meetings, especially at this time of the year, is far from ideal preparation-wise, as trainers face a difficult decision as what move to make next in regards to finding the right races at the right time for the horses before they intend to run them at the Cheltenham Festival in March. It would also cause a backlog as to where they would be even rerouted for another race as an alternative choice.
Anything from the middle of February onwards, so to speak, would be the last point of call before the Festival in my opinion, as this would give horses only a one and a half month break at most to recover before their main target. Some horses will no doubt relish being turned out quickly whilst some will need more time in between races and might not perform to the expectations that some might expect.
The only option would be to either find a race between now and mid-February (weather permitted) or bite the bullet and go straight to Cheltenham without an intended run under their belt. Ideally, the former would be more essential, as it would allow horses to have a much smoother preparation and reach peak-fitness for their main assignment instead of having a campaign restricted to fewer runs than is normally the case.
With preparation, time, training, patience, conditions and backup options all seen as an important aspect of a trainers method, the key now is for them to find a race that slots perfectly into the calendar due to the postponements and that isn’t easy given numerous races this year have hardly seen more than a handful of runners line-up each week due to the lower prize money - leaving a negative impression for the sport.
At the end of the day, the variable weather is out of anyone’s control and nine times out of 10 the trainers find a way around this problem and do best by the horse. That’s the way I look at it.
And how do they impact the Cheltenham ante-post markets?
The aftermath of the postponements of events that unfortunately can’t be rescheduled would impact the ante-post markets in some ways.
For an example, the Paul Nicholls-trained Monmiral was due to run in Novice Chase at Cheltenham last week in a prep-run for a possible return to the Cheltenham Festival, so he was re-routed to Ascot this weekend only for Friday’s meeting to be called off which leaves plans surely up in the air as to where he goes next.
Say for instance he is 33/1 for the Turners at the Festival and last Saturday's fixture at Cheltenham went ahead and he won very impressively, there is no doubt the bookmakers would slash his odds for that race.
Yet, the fact that he can’t run in that race or this weekend and Paul Nicholls decides to head to the Festival with just the one run under his belt over fences. would you be willing to back him with such little experience? As it would provide less clues in the ante-post market as to how he might fare at the big meeting in March.
Another one to mention would be Pikar, who Andy Holding is quite sweet on for the County Hurdle. He was entered at both Ascot and Haydock this weekend but with both meetings now abandoned, what’s the next option for Dan Skelton?
The same applies to Nicky Henderson’s First Street, who I strongly fancied for the International Hurdle last week before the meeting was abandoned and then Nicky pencilled him in for the Betfair Exchange at Ascot.
Currently favourite for the County Hurdle, connections will be wanting to find him one more race before the Cheltenham Festival but options are limited. His odds for that race at Cheltenham could easily be reduced if he’s found a suitable race between now and March and wins.
