In his first Irish View column for the Cheltenham Festival 2023, Johnny Ward explains the value in ante-post betting and picks out a challenger to Allaho in the Ryanair.
Finding ante-post value for the Cheltenham Festival 2023
A colleague pointed out before a race at Dundalk on Wednesday that a particular bookmaker was going a fifth of the odds the place, even though the race was a handicap and had more than 11 runners. Poor form in my view but the place system is an anachronism in any event.
We have seen more and more in recent years bookmakers offering their own odds on each-way markets, in many instances of huge benefit to the punter. Sometimes he or she will have to work out if it is better value or otherwise and if that's a problem the bookmaker is probably happy enough!
Honestly, I can't even be sure at times whether four places at a fifth is better value than three places a quarter of the odds! Bookmakers win money on sporting events easier than on horseracing and the challenge for the industry going forward is to keep people betting on horse racing, including in long-term markets.
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It's a personal thing perhaps but I love ante-post bets. The beauty or otherwise of betting on the dogs is that you know your fate within half a minute (or sooner if I've backed the dog) whereas the beauty of a long-term bet is watching the price change over time and talking about it for months.
I've approached Cheltenham once or twice in a really healthy position. As an example, the year that Samcro and Laurina both came good at the Festival saw me come out for the week with the guts of a year's wages. There are plenty of dud years but ante-post betting can be really lucrative.
Think outside the box to make the most of NRNB
To elaborate on this, the non-runner no bet promotion bookmakers pressure each other into offering nowadays can offer incredible value if you're willing to think outside the box. Essentially it can be like backing the second favourite, the odds-on favourite refuses to go into the stalls and you are paid out without a rule four.
That's the key to William Hill's promotion on all of the Cheltenham races. You'll get reimbursed if your horse doesn't run or runs elsewhere; any luck that befalls you with a rival doing the same can render your long-term positions look really bountiful come the middle of March.
As an example, Hills goes 1/5 about Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle. You can back State Man each-way at 4/1 but what price does State Man go off should Constitution Hill suffer a setback?
Every year I am amazed at how many horses sustain injuries in the week prior to Cheltenham, let alone the 10 weeks leading into it, so it is well worth looking at all of the races for some angles.
I'm no fan of the diluted Cheltenham and we've a very real possibility of five odds-on favourites on day one alone. That clearly shouldn't be the case but such is the four-day Festival. There's a real possibility too that one of these hotpots will be injured along the way.
What have we learned from this week’s Cheltenham entries?
This week, we'd the entries for the big races, and these things are rarely especially notable, though it was still newsworthy that Shishkin, odds-on for the same race only last March, wasn't even entered in the Champion Chase.
Willie Mullins won all of Leopardstown's graded races on three of the four days of the Christmas Festival; it's fair to say he's in good nick. But is Allaho?
Shishkin could well run in the Ryanair Chase on March 16th – it's either that or the Boodles Gold Cup – and you can have 7/1 about him. I don't feel his problems will be sorted by a new trip and run deeper. He was miles off his best the last twice, basically.
William Hill goes 4/5 about both Allaho and stablemate Galopin Des Champs in the Ryanair. Regardless of what happens the former, the latter surely won't run. Who will?
Having been ante-post favourite, Allaho missed the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase at Kempton Park due to a setback. He enjoyed the perfect season last term, winning his second Ryanair and proving his versatility at Punchestown when winning over three miles in fine style. He had been a best priced 11/8 to add the Christmas highlight to his impressive record.
Allaho is really good. If he rocks up in the Ryanair, you pretty much expect him to win. Wille Mullins said of him: “He’s good. Riding out. Cantering away.”
But we haven't seen him at all since April so he's a mad price at the moment. Last year he faced six rivals. This year will be deeper.
My 25/1 ante-post play for the Ryanair Chase
French Dynamite looks a lovely each-way play at 25/1 for the Ryanair with Hills. He shortened quite dramatically in-running in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas but on ground that he struggled on he failed to get home.
I spoke to his trainer Mouse Morris afterwards; he was delighted with the run. It's next to impossible he will run in anything other than the Ryanair and what's really encouraging is how he took to Cheltenham when second in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November.
The Queen Mother Champion Chase could have a field size more akin to a novice chase on quick ground at Fakenham; whereas it's hard to predict how many of the 27 Ryanair entries will run, my guess would be around a third of that.
Back to those each-way terms: you're getting 5s he finishes in the first three. The race will cut up and there could be less than eight runners. You're getting 5s the first 3 non-runner no bet!
Johnny's weekly Irish View column will become exclusively available to signed up oddschecker users in the build up to the Cheltenham Festival as part of our Super Service. Look out for more information on site next week, but in the meantime you can sign up to oddschecker for free here.
