Architect Tips explains what needs to go the way of Gordon Elliott at Cheltenham if he is to wrestle the top trainer title back from Willie Mullins.
With the 2023 Cheltenham Festival looming large, the greatest four days of the National Hunt season, one of the most significant factors again at this year’s meeting will be the race for the Top Trainer award.
Willie Mullins has had a stranglehold on the title for the last four years and the unparalleled star power in his yard cannot be disputed. Meanwhile, Gordon Elliott has twice been leading trainer at Cheltenham, in 2017 with six winners and in 2018 with eight.
Having only managed two winners at last season’s Festival, a rather disappointing number for a trainer who has consistently excelled at this meeting on a variant basis, Elliott will be looking to better that this time with some real star quality amongst his stable too.
So how can he possibly wrestle back the crown?
Since turning trainer a number of years ago, Elliott has sent out a total of 34 Cheltenham Festival winners but what is really surprising is that he has only landed one of the four championship races in that time, the Gold Cup with Don Cossack.
The County Meath handler does have a good chance of adding to that this time though, with some interesting horses expected to strut their stuff throughout the famous week.
Moreover, Elliott has stressed that his team is a lot stronger than some might think for this year’s Festival and with the possibility of having more than 60 runners, it would be seemingly odd should he not give the former plenty to think about in the race to be top trainer.
At the time of recording, Mullins is 2/13 favourite to make it five in a row, whilst Elliott is considered an outsider this time at general odds of 8/1. Here is a rundown of what might need to happen in order for Gordon to lift the trophy.
Betfred
- Huge range of regular promotions
- 24/7 live chat service
- PickYourPunt builder for custom bets
Delta Work or Galvin win the Cross Country
This is a race Elliott likes to target, as he has won this four times in the past, including last year with Delta Work, who will bid to defend his title. He stopped stablemate Tiger Roll from a fairytale success 12 months ago in a thrilling finish and went on to finish third in the Grand National at Aintree.
He returned to Cheltenham for the first time since his big success in January and ran a hell of a race to finish third, giving weight to the eventual first and second. Back on level terms next week, with conditions presumably going to be in his favour if the rain does continue to fall over Prestbury Park, he is the one to beat.
He is likely to be joined by stablemate Galvin, who is an interesting addition to the ranks and has just as good a chance as last year’s winner, with multiple Grade 1 wins to his name. In fact, he is actually rated five-pounds higher than the favourite and the last time he competed over a marathon distance, he collected the National Hunt Chase here two years ago.
Over the week in general, Elliott might not possess quite the number of favourites as Mullins but he has the front pair in the market in this unique contest and Mullins’ main hopeful appears to be Franco De Port, who isn’t in the same class as Delta Work and Galvin. This is realistically a great opportunity for Gordon to get one over on his old adversary.
Fury Road takes down Shishkin in the Ryanair
The Ryanair Chase has still to this day eluded Elliott but he has an excellent chance to break that barricade this time with nine-year-old Fury Road, one of my strongest each-way fancies at this year’s Cheltenham Festival and, if doing so, that would certainly help in his quest to regain the top trainer spot after four years of chasing his rival.
He was last seen running a blinder to finish third in the Irish Gold Cup and that piece of form alone besides other high-class form, gives him a great chance to outgun the short-price favourite Shishkin. Elliott could also deploy Conflated, who was in the process of running really well in this last season when falling at the second last when looking booked for second behind Allaho.
He still has the option of the Gold Cup but if he were to line-up here, he would certainly provide Elliott with more ammunition. Either way, Fury Road is a reliable customer and if he produces a similar performance to last time, he could win this. He will also have to overcome Mullins’ Blue Lord but his chances are there for all to see.
Teahupoo wins the Stayers’
We move onto the feature race on Thursday, the Stayers’ Hurdle, and this race is interesting when putting the two big Irish trainers under the spotlight, as it’s one of the big four races with an extremely wide-open feel about it. In the Elliott camp, his main hopeful will be Teahupoo, who is his only leading contender and bids to cast aside a dismal display in last season’s Champion Hurdle.
Conversely, Mullins could have three big players in the form of Klassical Dream, Sir Gerhard and Asterion Forlonge. My instinct tells me though, only the firstly-mentioned horse will make the race provided he’s in good shape following a minor setback. If the rain does arrive, it would only increase the chances Elliott’s charge though, who additionally saves his best for a softer surface.
He blossomed when tackling three-miles for the first time when last spotted in the Galmoy Hurdle. Despite being one of the key horses for next week’s race, this will be a much tougher race and I’m still not sure Cheltenham plays to his strengths. Perhaps his Champion Hurdle run last year was just a one-off but I’m yet to be convinced despite his recent easy success.
His preparation has been faultless though, and his trainer is quite bullish about his credentials, so if he was to come out on top, it would certainly help Gordon in regards to potentially becoming top trainer for the week. Is he a good thing or will he fail to show his true colours at the Festival for a second consecutive year? Only next week will reveal the answer to the query.
Mighty Potter to justify top spot in the Turners
The Turners Novices’ Chase has seen nine Irish-trained winners of its 12 renewals in total and it has been prolific for trainer Elliott in recent years, as he has won two of the last five renewals, firstly with Shattered Love in 2018 and also in 2020 with Samcro.
He has a great opportunity to add to that tally this year with warm favourite Mighty Potter, who is unbeaten in three starts over fences and is probably Gordon’s best chance of a winner all week, in which his price (best 11/8) reflects his chances.
His only blip so far in his career came in last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle when disappointingly pulled up but he hasn’t looked back since and the anticipated showdown between himself and Mullins’ Appreciate It is on the cards next week but I reckon Mullins’ former Supreme winner needs a personal best to beat Elliott’s team-member.
The latter steps up in trip having looked a bit one-paced when only third in the Irish Arkle last time, whereas the former has already established himself to be the best intermediate distance horse of the novices over fences with two Grade 1 wins from his just three chase starts.
The six-year-old has plenty more improvement to come and Davy Russell will ride. I think Mullins will have to settle for second best behind Gordon Elliott in this contest, as I am struggling to pick holes in Mighty Potter’s form. He did have a tendency to hang right under pressure last time but that’s likely to be ironed out.
He is a fairly solid proposition at the top of the market and I struggle to see Appreciate It having the natural pace to beat him next week. Willie could declare Sir Gerhard but his jumping will need to be more assured than his chase debut and he was behind Mighty Potter when the pair met over hurdles at Punchestown last April.
Gerri Colombe wins the Brown Advisory
The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase has Elliott’s Gerri Colombe as the 7/4 favourite, ever since he won the Grade 1 Scilly Isles early last month. Unbeaten in seven starts under rules, including three times over fences, he has won under all different types of conditions and improvement is firmly on the cards.
His trainer has plotted a carefully intent route to this season, given he has yet to even compete over three miles but as shaped as though he would be even better when his stamina is drawn out. He is regarded by a lot of fans as one of the bankers of the week and he could well be another winner for team Elliott.
I don’t like to ponder and be too critical of a horse who has yet to taste defeat over fences but in my honest assessment, he will need to be more alert to the task ahead next week, as let’s face it, that form at Sandown isn’t that strong. Monmiral failed to run his race plus Balco Coastal doesn’t look a Grade 1 horse and he only had a length to spare over the second at the line.
His connections have already stated the Gold Cup next year is his main ultimate target. Back on the subject of next week, his opposition include The Real Whacker, who has jumped fantastically well in both chase wins at the course, recent Grade 1 winner Thyme Hill and also a few possible Mullins runners, so his task is by no means as easy as the betting implies.
Still, his chances are crisp and clear and if he can maintain his unbeaten record next week, it would certainly help Gordon in possibly taking down Mullins. His assignment would of course be made easier should Gaillard Du Mesnil and Sir Gerhard go elsewhere plus Ramillies, James Du Berlais and Bronn would need more to trouble the undefeated favourite. Good chance.
Would anything else need to happen?
Well it’s no doubt Elliott will be mob-handed with a strong batch of runners in the handicaps, particularly the hurdle events, given 11 of his 34 winners at the Cheltenham Festival have been in handicap hurdle events. Interestingly, backing his runners blind in these races would have yielded a very healthy profit and his main fancy in the handicaps would be Maxxum in the Pertemps, according to the betting at least.
In his bid to become the leading trainer of the week, his chances would be increased if Galopin Des Champs didn’t win the Gold Cup but that might seem far-fetched to some if Conflated doesn’t line-up and instead goes for the Ryanair Chase.
In the Arkle, Jonbon would need to come out on top to give Gordon a favour but with Mullins having five of the first six horses in the market, this could be tactically-run and Nicky Henderson’s charge would need a lot to go his way here.
Despite his expected large number of runners, Elliott surprisingly doesn’t have a top two-mile senior chaser within his team this term with no entries in the race itself.
Instead, he can only hope Alan King’s Edwardstone can get the better of last year’s winner Energumene but another personal best would be required as I can envisage the defending champion bouncing back to his best in a week's time.
