Liam Firkin looks at key betting trends for the big races at York this week.
It’s Dante week at York and there’s plenty of information that can be gleaned from this week. I’ve taken a look at the trends for six key races but also looking ahead to where these runners could line up next.
We need to constantly be filling the pipeline from an ante post and tracker perspective and I hope that not only will I point you in the direction of a winner or two this week, but also give you an indication of where the winner of each of these races is likely to line up next. The aim being for us to get on, at early prices, for their next target and get that all important value.
Before we get stuck into the races themselves, it’s important to remind ourselves that trends are there as a guide and can be used in one of two ways:
Firstly, they can provide an angle into a race, it can uncover horses who may not have otherwise been on your mind for consideration. Then the hard work starts; the form study, stable form, breeding analysis, course form, draw bias and everything else in-between.
The second use for trends is to back up an already formed opinion. You may have already conducted all the analysis of a race and have settled on your selection for a given race. Trends can then be useful to back up this opinion by contrasting your selection against previous winners of that given race. Blindly backing horses based on trends is a one way ticket to “the poor house”.
Finally, the trends someone may use are subjective. Someone may choose to use trends for the last five years, while others taking results from the last 10 years.
This can have a huge implication on which horses marry up to the stats that are being selected. If big changes have recently been made to a particular race, but are still included in your “trends pack” it makes the whole data set redundant.
For example: If I used all of the data for the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham for the last 10 years to build a shortlist of horses who match those trends, then that shortlist would be worth ZERO. The race is now a handicap and data from that race, off level weights, is nothing but wasted time and energy.
I’ve been using the trends from thestatsdontlie.com and find it a very useful tool. From there, I am selective in which trends I use and build a trend pack for each race I am analysing before providing a shortlist of horses, who match those trends, which is exactly what I’ve done here. Let’s get stuck into it…
Dante Meeting Key Races & Dates
- Duke Of York Stakes – Wednesday 14th May @ 15:13
- Musidora Stakes – Wednesday 14th May @ 15:45
- Hambleton Handicap – Thursday 15th May @ 14:42
- Middleton Stakes – Thursday 15th May @ 15:13
- Dante Stakes – Thursday 15th May @ 15:45
- Yorkshire Cup – Friday 16th May @ 15:45
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Duke Of York Stakes Tips & Betting Trends
The Trends:
- 1+ Run at York
- Nine of the last 11 Winners
- 3+ Wins over 6f
- 10 of the last 11 Winners
- Rating of 110+
- Eight of the last 11 Winners
- Group 1-3 Winner
- Eight of the last 11 Winners
- 1+ run this season
- Eight of the last 11 Winners
The Shortlist:
The only horse who has matched each of the above trends is the Karl Burke trained, MARSHMAN, currently top price of 16/1.
He claimed a Group 3 success at Chantilly, has course form at York and has reached that rating of 110 which has been assisted by four wins at the 6f trip at Ayr, Thirsk, Newcastle and Lingfield.
Very few in the field have had a run this season and most notably the current favourite, Inisherin, who is first time up after a wind-op and is also yet to encounter the York course.
However, he does have the three wins over 6f in his favour and as the highest rated in the field, off a mark of 116, easily smashes the 110+ rating trend.
Where next?
The Duke Of York Stakes has been a clear pointer to the Jubilee Stakes at Ascot, now the QEII Jubilee Stakes, to give its full name.
Eight of the last 11 winners went on to run here but all failed to win at Ascot and just three of those winners hitting the places.
It’s not all doom and gloom though, as four of the previous 11 winners did go on to win at least one more race that season.
It’s worthwhile keeping tabs on whoever is successful in this on Wednesday, but I wouldn’t hang your hat on them following up at the Royal Meeting.
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Musidora Stakes Tips & Betting Trends
The Trends:
- 2+ Career Runs
- Nine of the last 11 Winners
- 1+ This Season
- Eight of the last 11 Winners
- Rating of 85+
- Eight of the last 11 Winners
The Shortlist:
Three horses make this shortlist. As to be expected, these less exposed horses won’t offer as much form to go on. It’s perhaps to be noted that the outsider of the field, TATTYCORAM just sneaks into the 85+ rating bracket, given her mark of 86 and GO GO BOOTS is yet to be seen on turf, although I don’t foresee that being a huge problem.
Current favourite, WHIRL, was tried in Group company when finishing 6th at the Curragh when sent off 2/1 favourite but the trends wouldn’t suggest that’s a huge negative as no winner of this has come into the race with Group 1-3 success prior to lining up in The Musidora.
Any backers of WHIRL will be pleased to know that favourites have a decent record in this with four of the last 11 renewals going to the market leader. A tricky puzzle to solve.
Where next?
There are two clear routes from here. Of course, the Oaks where eight of the last 11 winners lined up next time out, or a trip over to the continent for the Prix de Diane Longines.
Six of the 11 winners went on to win at least one more race in that season with two going on to win the Oaks at Epsom.
Something to consider is that none of the winners went on to run at Royal Ascot, so should you have a race in mind for the winner at that meeting, perhaps a rethink is required.
Hambleton Handicap Tips & Betting Trends
The Trends:
- 1+ Win over 8f
- 11 of the last 11 Winners
- 2+ Career Wins
- 11 of the last 11 Winners
- Rating of 96+
- 10 of the last 11 Winners
- 10+ Career Runs
- Nine of the last 11 Winners
- Age: 5-7
- Eight of the last 11 Winners
The Shortlist:
Two horses on the shortlist, BLUE FOR YOU and NORTHERN EXPRESS. The ratings trend would guide you in the direction of the top of the weights and it’s worth mentioning one omission who ticks all the boxes other than the age bracket. La Trinidad just misses out on the shortlist and furthermore, was a real eye catcher last time out.
Blue For You is at the top of the market and understandably so but he will have to buck the trend of favourites not having a great record in this with just one of the last 11 renewals going to the market principal.
However, just last week, East India Dock lined up in the Chester Cup and that race proved to be no issue for him as the favourite who bucked the 12 year trend by being the first favourite in over a decade to get his head in front, in that event.
Where next?
As to be expected, this will be a key target for those who line up here and not surprisingly, the handicapper seems to get a grip of the Hambleton winner and that is reflected in the fact that no winner has gone on and win on their next start.
A likely target for the winner would be the Royal Hunt Cup, where four have subsequently lined up, with just one hitting the places.
It may pay to keep the winner onside for further down the line as three winners did go on to follow up later in the season but any thoughts that the winner will back that their run next time out appears to be wishful thinking, based on the trends.
I hope you’ve found the above useful. Remember to only use the trends as a guide but they may help you if applying them to your selection.
Part 2 will be out tomorrow where I take a look at the Middleton Stakes, Dante Stakes and Yorkshire Cup.
