Liam Firkin shortlists the best runners for the biggest races at York this week for the Dante Festival.
It's time to turn our attention to the other three Dante Meeting races mentioned yesterday and look into the trends, potential winners and future targets.
If you missed Part 1, you can find it here:
Part 2 will be covering:
- Middleton Stakes - Thursday 15th May @ 15:13
- Dante Stakes - Thursday 15th @ 15:45
- Yorkshire Cup - Friday 16th @ 15:45
Middleton Stakes Tips & Betting Trends
The Trends:
- 2+ Runs over 10f
- Nine of the last 11 Winners
- Rating of 107+
- Eight of the last 11 Winners
- 3+ Career Wins
- Eight of the last 11 Winners
- 7+ Career Runs
- Seven of the last 11 Winners
The Shortlist:
The trends have helped us whittle down the field to BEAUTIFUL LOVE and DOHA. Current short price favourite, See The Fire narrowly misses out, having won just the two races in her career to date.
Should you want to try and further reduce the shortlist to try and land on one horse; seven of the last 11 winners placed on their last start, prior to running here. That would leave you with just the Godolphin runner, Beautiful Love (best price 5/1).
Be aware that this trend accounts for only 63% of the recent winners and as outlined in part 1. It would be foolish to use trends alone, as your route to a bet. Look deeper into the race, would be my advice.
Where next?
The truth is, it could be any number of races. The last 11 winners have taken six different routes for their next engagement. The majority (three) have favoured the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.
Only one winner from this race went on to win on their next start and that was the exceptional, Bluestocking, who followed up in The Pretty Polly Stakes and we know what she went on to achieve.
Who am I to say there won’t be another improving filly to come from this field? Perhaps wishful thinking and I would suggest that you proceed with caution.
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Dante Stakes Tips & Betting Trends
The Trends:
- 1+ Run this Season
- 12 of last 12 Winners
- 1+ Flat Win
- 12 of last 12 Winners
- Previous Run (Last 32 days)
- 11 of last 12 Winners
- 2+ Career Runs
- 11 of last 12 Winners
- Winner on last start
- Seven of the last 12
The Shortlist:
Current favourite The Lion In Winter falls short of having the required runs this season and we all know that it’s taken a bit more time than Aidan O’Brien has first anticipated, to get him to the track.
Something else worth considering is that the great trainer has not won this in the last 15 years and has sent the likes of Continuous, High Definition and Japan amongst other runners to the Dante Stakes and although his perceived second or third string may usually take up this engagement, it’s still something that may play on some punters minds.
Away from the main protagonist and the talking horse of the season so far. APLINE TRAIL, SEA SCOUT and MISTER RIZZ are those that the trends have left us with. It may not have drawn up a short, shortlist but hopefully some food for thought in amongst the trends.
Where next?
33% of winners, in the last 12 renewals went on to win on their next start (four) with majority lining up in the Derby. A total of nine of the 12 winners went to Epsom with two winning and a further three placing.
Six of those winners did win later on in the season so perhaps worth keeping the first past the post onside for later in the season, should they not follow up in the Derby. Will the winner stamp their mark on the Derby and look like a potential Classic winner?
Yorkshire Cup Tips & Betting Trends
The Trends:
- 9+ Career Runs
- 11 of the last 11 Winners
- Rating of 110+
- 10 of the last 11 Winners
- Group 1-3 Wins 1+
- 10 of the last 11 Winners
- 1+ Career Runs over 14f
- 10 of the last 11 Winners
- 4+ Career Wins
- Nine of the last 11 Winners
- Age: 4 or 5 Years old
- Nine of the last 11 winners
The Shortlist:
The first five of the trends eliminate the David O’Meara runner, Epic Poet and current joint favourite, Rebels Romance who has not run over the 1m6f trip, in his career to date.
If we dig a little deeper and look at the age profile of the winners of this race, it does favour those who are four and five years old with nine of the last 11 winners coming from that age bracket. That is a further negative to the Godolphin runner and also excludes Sweet William, who at the time of writing, is the joint favourite at 9/4 with the aforementioned Charlie Appleby runner.
That leaves us with ALSAKIB and CONTINUOUS, who both have course wins to their names with the former having won over course and distance in the Group 3, Silver Cup Stakes, last July.
Where next?
There are a couple of likely targets for the winner following the Yorkshire Cup. Five of the 11 winners went on to run in the Ascot Gold Cup with two of the Yorkshire Cup winners following up, in the same season, in the Ascot Gold Cup.
However, all four of those wins mentioned came from just one horse. Stradivarius. The winner of this event and the Ascot Gold Cup in 2018 and 2019.
Seven of the 11 winners returned to York in August for the Lonsdale Cup Stakes, so perhaps another race to earmark for the winner, should you want to consider future targets for whoever gets their head in front on Friday.
That’s a wrap on the trends for this week. I hope you’ve found both Parts 1 & 2 useful and we will see how the six races play out over the course of the week.
A final mention to thestatsdontlie.com, who has plenty more trends and statistics should you want to check them out, over on their site.
Best of luck for this week at York!
