The Juddmonte Irish Oaks at the Curragh on Saturday sees Thundering On bid to complete the Oaks double against a Royal Ascot-boosted Earth Shot.
An 11-strong field will go to post for Saturday's Juddmonte Irish Oaks at the Curragh (4.35), with Epsom heroine Thundering On bidding to complete the Oaks double and Royal Ascot winner Earth Shot chasing a first Classic success for William Haggas.
French Oaks winner Diamond Necklace was among the notable absentees when the forfeit stage was confirmed on Tuesday, leaving Aidan O'Brien to dominate the numbers with five runners from his Ballydoyle stable.
Joseph O'Brien saddles a powerful three-pronged challenge, while three fillies - Inis Mor, Sparan Nua and Rebel Moon - were added to the race at the supplementary stage, each paying a fee to take their chance in Ireland's premier middle-distance test for three-year-old fillies.
Irish Oaks Runners
Amelia Earhart
The Camelot filly heads Aidan O'Brien's five-strong hand after an impressive Cheshire Oaks victory, but she flopped as favourite in the Betfred Oaks at Epsom next time. That remains her only below-par run over this trip in two starts, and a return to quicker ground could bring back the frontrunning traits she showed prior to Epsom. The headgear combination of blinkers and a hood adds an intriguing subplot to her comeback bid.
Beautify
A 66/1 outsider on official figures, Beautify was only sixth in the Pretty Polly Stakes last time and hasn't won since last year's Airlie Stud Stakes. She drops back to face her own generation and steps beyond ten furlongs for the first time, a test her stamina-laden dam's page suggests she should handle.
Cameo
Cameo won the Lingfield Oaks Trial before finishing fifth at Epsom and then well beaten in Group Three company at Naas. A drop back in class hasn't yet paid off, and she needs a marked improvement to figure at the business end, though easier ground would work in her favour.
Composing
Unbeaten through three starts as a juvenile, Composing failed to fire when favourite for the Moyglare Stud Stakes last season. She's improved for a step up in trip and first-time cheekpieces, finishing a solid fifth in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot having hung under pressure, a run that puts her ahead of Oaks runner-up Legacy Link on that day's evidence.
Earth Shot
Trained by William Haggas, who won this race with the smart Sea Of Class, Earth Shot arrives in career-best form after landing the Ribblesdale on her first try at a mile and a half. A wide-margin maiden win at Newmarket was followed by a good effort in Listed company at Goodwood behind subsequent Prix de Diane placed Inis Mor, before her Royal Ascot triumph. With only four starts to her name, there should be more improvement to come, and her dam's Bronte Cup win over an extended trip hints at further stamina in reserve. "She is just improving with every run, which is nice," said Haggas of his in-form filly.
Inis Mor
David Menuisier's filly was a well-beaten twelfth in the 1000 Guineas but has since thrived for a step up in distance, beating Earth Shot at Goodwood and finishing third in the French Oaks. Stepping up again in trip should suit a filly whose dam won over nearly two miles, though she can be free-going in her races and needs a truly run contest to show her best.
Johanna Walsh
Joseph O'Brien's Sea The Stars filly has progressed with every start, following a frontrunning Leopardstown success with a gutsy second to Earth Shot in the Ribblesdale, beaten only a head. A €460,000 yearling purchase, she still has ground to find with her Oaks-winning stablemate but looks capable of taking another step forward on the back of that Royal Ascot run.
Rebel Moon
Unbeaten in two starts and supplemented at a cost of €50,000, Rebel Moon looks the most unexposed filly in the field. Her Group Three win at Naas over the re-opposing Cameo leaves obvious question marks, but her pedigree, strong finishing pace and the fact her connections were prepared to pay to get her in suggest she could be underestimated.
Sparan Nua
Jim Bolger's homebred is the field's only unbeaten runner across three starts, most recently landing the Munster Oaks at Cork. Her races have generally been steadily run affairs, so this true test of stamina represents a different puzzle, but she's shown a smart turn of foot when asked. Racing manager P J Colville admits it's "a tough ask" but felt she'd earned her shot at the top level.
Sugar Island
A half-sister to Minding, Sugar Island won on debut before a mixed campaign, later making all in Group company on heavy ground. She was well beaten by stablemate Amelia Earhart at Chester but franked that form with a better effort in third at Epsom. Quick ground has previously found her out, and testing conditions again look essential for her to figure.
Thundering On
The Frankel filly was a dominant winner of the Betfred Oaks before finishing fourth as favourite in the Pretty Polly Stakes, a run complicated by a subsequent finding that she'd been coughing and by the fastest ground she'd encountered. Given how she demolished her field at Epsom, she remains the one to beat if back to full health for her in-form trainer.
Irish Oaks 2026 Odds and Favourites
Earth Shot and Thundering On share favouritism at the head of the market, with the rest of the field spread out behind them:
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Earth Shot | 3/1 |
| Thundering On | 3/1 |
| Amelia Earhart | 5/1 |
| Johanna Walsh | 5/1 |
| Inis Mor | 6/1 |
| Sparan Nua | 7/1 |
| Rebel Moon | 12/1 |
| Sugar Island | 25/1 |
| Cameo | 33/1 |
| Composing | 50/1 |
| Beautify | 66/1 |
Earth Shot's Royal Ascot form and improving profile make her popular with punters, while Thundering On's readmission to the market depends on how she's recovered from the coughing setback that undid her Pretty Polly bid. Johanna Walsh's narrow defeat behind Earth Shot keeps her firmly in the reckoning, and value hunters may be drawn to the unbeaten Sparan Nua or the highly-touted, twice-supplemented Rebel Moon.
Irish Oaks Trends
Recent renewals of the race point to some clear patterns for punters to weigh up when assessing this year's field. Based on the last 23 runnings:
Strongly backed trends:
- 21/23 winners had raced within six weeks of the race
- 20/23 winners had finished first or second last time out
- 19/23 winners came from the top three in the betting
- 17/23 winners were returned at 9/2 or shorter
- 16/23 winners had won between one and two races before
- 16/23 winners had scored last time out
- 16/23 winners were sent off favourite
- 16/23 winners had already won over a mile and four furlongs
Irish Oaks 2026 Betting Tip
Pick: Earth Shot (3/1)
She fits the trends better than anything else in the field. She won last time out (16/23 recent winners did too), she's races within six weeks, sits in the top three of the betting, and is unbeaten since breaking her maiden - ticking the "improving, lightly-raced type peaking at the right time" box that recurs in Irish Oaks history. Her form also has real substance: she beat subsequent French Oaks-placed Inis Mor at Goodwood, then followed up by beating Johanna Walsh at Royal Ascot - two fillies who reoppose here, giving her a solid line through the form.
The case against Thundering On is the coughing setback and unproven form on quick ground - she was beaten favourite last time out, which goes against one of the strongest trends (20/23 winners had finished 1st or 2nd last time). Her Epsom form is the best on paper, but there's more uncertainty around her than the market price suggests.
