Today is US Election day and the data suggests Donald Trump is likely to become the next US President according to Betfair.
Betfair is predicting a victory for Donald Trump on the morning of today's US Election, as voters are given their final opportunity to head to the ballot boxes across America.
According to Betfair's data, Trump has a 59.88% chance of winning the US Election, while his opposition Kamala Harris has a 40.32% chance of victory.
This has come after months of presidential debates and rallies across the country, with Harris only being in the running since July after it was announced that Joe Biden would be stepping down at this election.
Despite this prediction from Betfair, the odds are still incredibly close and they got even tighter overnight, suggesting it could go down to the wire before the results are announced tomorrow morning.
Let's take a deeper dive into the numbers and why Betfair has made this prediction ahead of the US Election results.
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US Election Donald Trump Odds - Trump now 4/6 on Betfair Exchange
With the results looming for the 2024 US Election, Trump's odds are now 4/6 on the Betfair Exchange and is a narrow favourite to become the next US President.
In the last 24 hours, his odds have shortened slightly from 4/5 to 4/6, while Harris' odds have remained at around 6/4.
Despite this, Trump is not predicted to win the Popular Vote with current odds of 31/10, giving him an implied probability of just 24.39%. Harris' odds are as short as 4/11, giving her a much higher probability of 73.33%.
| Candidate | Betfair Exchange Election Winner Odds | Implied Probability | £10 Bet Winnings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 4/6 | 60% | £16.67 |
| Kamala Harris | 6/4 | 40% | £25 |
US Election insight: £28 Million in Bets Placed on Trump in Last 24 Hours
A huge amount of money has been placed on Trump winning throughout this election period, and that has only increased this week.
Punters seem to be leaning towards a Trump victory with £28,479,785 bet on him in the last 24 hours on Betfair Exchange, which is part of the reason why they are predicting a victory for him over Harris.
In comparison, Harris has attracted a much smaller number of bets with £3,279,165 placed on her in the last 24 hours. Despite this, the Presidential race remains close and key swing states will be vital in claiming those all-important votes ahead of the results.
The table below shows how much has been bet on each candidate and their all-time high to low election winner odds.
| Candidate | Amount Bet in Last 24 Hours | All-Time Low Price | All-Time Top Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | £28,479,785 | 2/5 | 20/1 |
| Kamala Harris | £3,279,165 | 4/5 | 149/1 |
Key Swing States Could be Vital on US Election Day
Harris will be spending all of today campaigning in Pennsylvania, one of the seven states where voting could go either way.
The Keystone State was won by Trump in 2016, but Biden won it back four years later suggesting they are likely to back the winner once more, which explains why Harris is keen to make a statement there today.
| Swing State | Donald Trump | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 1/4 | 3/1 |
| Georgia | 4/7 | 13/8 |
| Michigan | 4/9 | 19/10 |
| Nevada | 8/11 | 5/4 |
| North Carolina | 8/15 | 6/4 |
| Pennsylvania | 8/11 | 5/4 |
| Wisconsin | 6/5 | 8/11 |
As for Trump, he will be starting his final day in North Carolina where the Republicans have a good chance of winning. They currently have a 67% chance of winning, with the Democrats not claiming the share of the votes there since 2008.
Trump will also be stopping by some of the key swing states today, including Pennsylvania and Michigan where the Democrats are predicted to win with a 65.2% chance of victory.
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