Get insight into how the odds have shifted for the US Election and how the gap has closed between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris leading up to election day.
The US Election concludes today as America goes to the polls to decide who their next president will be. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are the leading candidates, and we're going to take a look at how the odds have shifted throughout election day and in the weeks leading up.
Trump started the day with shortened odds, having drifted slightly yesterday with people seeming to back Harris in the betting.
This trend slowed as Trump then edged further ahead, and has been the favourite to win despite the polls suggesting the result is too close to call.
Let's review the US Election odds and see where the market has moved most leading up to election day, plus where the majority of bets have been placed.
US Election Winner Odds - How the Odds Have Shifted
Trump's odds shortened prior to election day as he remains the bookie's favourite to win the US Election over Harris. Not too long ago, the gap between Trump and Harris was significantly wider, with Harris closing on her opponent in the build-up to election day.
Now, the betting remains close in the US Election Winner market, they have shifted slightly in favour of Trump this week as we get closer to the conclusion of the US Election.
You can see the latest US Election Winner odds below, and how they compare to 7 days ago:
| Candidate | Latest Odds | Current Implied Probability | Odds 7 Days Ago | Implied Probability 7 Days Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 4/6 | 60% | 4/9 | 69.2% |
| Kamala Harris | 6/4 | 40% | 9/5 | 35.7% |
The implied probability of Trump winning the US Election is now 60%, a figure that was almost 70% just a week ago, with Harris' improving from around 35% to 40% today.
This shows how much the gap has closed during the seven days prior to election day. Despite this, Trump remains the firm favourite to win according to the betting.
US Election Betting Trends
There have been some interesting developments on election day with a flurry of bets being placed on both Trump and Harris in the last 24 hours.
So far, Trump has had 56% of the total bets placed on Election Day, despite his odds shortening. Also, Trump to win over 80 million votes has been cut to as short as 4/6, giving an implied probability of 40%
As for Electoral College Votes (ECVs), 33% of bets have been placed on Kamala Harris to win 270-299 ECVs, while odds on 240-269 ECVs have been cut from 11/4 to 2/1 on election day.
Key swing states have been a major talking point throughout this election process, with the Republicans receiving 65% of bets to win Pennsylvania at 4/6. Similarly, the Republicans have received 81% of bets to win North Carolina, another of the seven key swing states, at 4/7.81% of bets on Republicans to win NC - 4/7
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