Discover the latest bet365 trading data for Moses Itauma vs Filip Hrgovic. With 90% of bets backing Itauma, see how punters are wagering on round betting and method of victory.
As 21-year-old boxing prodigy Moses Itauma prepares to collide with battle-hardened Croatian contender Filip Hrgovic for the vacant IBF Heavyweight World Title at London’s O2 Arena, exclusive trading data from bet365 reveals that 90.83% of all bets on the match market are backing Itauma to claim victory.
The unbeaten British southpaw enters as a heavy odds-on favourite, driven by an explosive 14-0 (12 KOs) record and comparisons to a young Mike Tyson. However, beneath the headline figure lies a clear split in how punters are approaching the matchup across different betting formats.
See the latest Itauma v Hrgovic odds here.
The Win Market Split: Bet Builders vs. Value Singles
While overall volume heavily favors Itauma, a closer look at bet structures reveals two contrasting betting strategies across the market:
- Bet Builders (97.92% Itauma): Punters building multi-leg combinations are overwhelmingly including Itauma as an anchor leg. 97.92% of Bet Builder selections back Itauma, compared to just 2.08% for Hrgovic.
- Singles (77.96% Hrgovic): In contrast, individual moneyline bets tell a different story. 77.96% of single wagers are backing Hrgovic to spring the upset, with value-seekers taking advantage of the long odds available on the former Olympic bronze medallist.
| Market Category | Filip Hrgovic | Moses Itauma |
| All Bet Types | 9.17% | 90.83% |
| Singles Only | 77.96% | 22.04% |
| Bet Builders | 2.08% | 97.92% |
Method of Victory: Stoppage Expected Inside the Distance
Bettors are anticipating a dramatic finish in London, with over half of all method wagers predicting an Itauma stoppage victory.
- Itauma by Knockout (30.77%) and Technical Knockout (19.78%) account for a combined 50.55% of all method bets placed.
- Itauma by Unanimous Decision sits third at 9.34%, indicating low market expectation for a full 12-round distance fight.
- Hrgovic by Knockout represents the top outcome for the underdog, securing 8.24% of overall method wagers (9.87% in single bets).
| Outcome | Share of All Bets | Share of Single Bets |
| Moses Itauma by Knockout | 30.77% | 32.89% |
| Moses Itauma by Technical Knockout | 19.78% | 15.79% |
| Moses Itauma by Unanimous Decision | 9.34% | 7.89% |
| Filip Hrgovic by Knockout | 8.24% | 9.87% |
| Generic Knockout | 6.59% | 5.26% |
Round Betting: Heavy Backing for Early Blitz
Trading data highlights an intense cluster of wagers on Itauma delivering an early stoppage. All top five round selections—across both overall volume and single wagers—belong to Itauma in the opening five rounds.
- Rounds 1–3 Dominance: Over 40.21% of all round wagers target Itauma winning within the first three rounds.
- Round 1 (14.44%) and Round 2 (13.04%) are the most backed individual round outcomes on the board.
- Combined, 57.14% of all round bets predict Itauma securing the stoppage within the first five rounds (Rounds 1–5).
| Round Selection | Share of All Bets | Share of Single Bets |
| Moses Itauma - Round 1 | 14.44% | 14.41% |
| Moses Itauma - Round 2 | 13.04% | 13.72% |
| Moses Itauma - Round 3 | 12.73% | 12.69% |
| Moses Itauma - Round 4 | 9.94% | 10.12% |
| Moses Itauma - Round 5 | 6.99% | 7.03% |
