The odds have the Torries winning 398 seats compared to Labour’s 171
The “Dementia tax” u-turn had a serious impact on Theresa May’s odds of holding on to her position as Prime Minister following the general election, but despite her parties’ odds of winning the most seats at the election slipping from 1/50, the conservatives still have a tight grip on the market at 1/16.
As well as pricing up the most obvious markets surrounding the general election, the bookmakers have also provided odds for each different constituency. Even though there are constituencies such as Cities of London and Westminster, where the Conservatives are 1/100 to win the seat they’ve occupied since the fifties, there are other areas where the odds are very tight and look likely to play a crucial role in the outcome of the election.
Taking the favourite party for each constituency puts the Conservative Party well on top and if the bookies are proven right, May’s Party will win with 398 seats, higher than any other party has managed since Tony Blair’s Labour party won with 412 back in 2001.
Jeremy Corbyn’s odds to be prime minister may have been cut to as short as 4/1 following his manifesto release and the Tory chaos that followed, but he’ll need a huge increase in support if his party is to topple the Conservatives. The bookmakers expect him to win 171 seats in total. With the Labour party close second-favourites in 76 other areas with the Tories favourite in 73 of those 76 regions.
However, even if the Labour Party was to win all of the seats they are currently second favourite for, that would still only bring them to 247 compared to the Conservative’s 325.
Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats only won eight seats back in 2015 and the bookmakers have them favourite to add an extra two seats this time round. Despite being expected to build on 2015’s numbers, the odds are pretty congested for every market they’re favourite in to win a seat. It’s touch-and-go whether the Lib Dems will hold on to areas such as Leeds North West and Westmorland & Lonsdale. It’s not all doom and gloom however, with Farron’s party favourites to recapture new areas such as Twickenham and Cambridge.
The Bookmakers are predicting SNP will win forty-eight seats, eight less than they managed in 2015. Both Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru are expected to build on their tally two years previous. But it looks like a miserable time for UKIP, the party are expected to lose the only seat won at the last election leaving them with no MP’s.
Bookmakers predictions:
Conservative – 398 seats
Labour – 171 seats
Scottish National Party – 48 seats
Liberal Democrats – 10 seats
Democratic Unionist Party – 8 seats
Sinn Fien – 6 seats
Plaid Cymru – 4 seats
Social Democratic & Labour Party – 2 seats
Alliance – 1 seat
Green – 1 seat
Independent (Lady Hermon) – 1 seat
SDLP – 2 seats
