UK election betting trends mirroring those of the US election.
Donald Trump gave the world one of the biggest political shocks ever witnessed when he went head-to-head with Hilary Clinton for the US Presidency in November 2016 and pulled off the unthinkable. Throughout the Presidential campaign, Clinton remained a short-priced favourite with bookmakers to emerge victorious despite the billionaire reality TV star Trump proving popular with punters. The Republican candidate managed to secure the presidency despite being a massive 11/2 to win the election just twenty-five days before the US went to the polls and now it seems Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is following a similar path to Trump.
Comparing Corbyn's and May's odds to Trump's and Clinton's in the days leading up to their respective election days #GeneralElection pic.twitter.com/SkFbUlnAnm
— Oddschecker Media (@OddscheckerNews) June 1, 2017
The graph above charts the percentage of bets the main candidates accounted for in the days leading up to the elections. Like Trump, Jeremy Corbyn has held a larger market share of bets as polling day approached compared to his rival, in this case Theresa May. It’s also worth noting, that for the majority of days, the Labour leader has proven more popular than eventual winner and current US President Trump. Another correlation between the two is that they both sit second to their rivals when it comes to the amount staked. Whilst Hilary Clinton accounted for 58% of stakes placed in the month prior to the election, Theresa May is currently responsible for almost 80%.
Comparing percentage of bets placed on each candidate leading up to the US and UK Elections #GeneralElection pic.twitter.com/JrupjehDUT
— Oddschecker Media (@OddscheckerNews) June 1, 2017
In this graph we can see how Jeremy Corbyn’s odds contrast to those of Donald Trump in the month leading up to the big day before beginning follow a similar trajectory as their odds shorten. 28 days before the day of the votes, Corbyn was 14/1 compared to Trump who was just 9/2. However, the Labour leader has cut that gap and with just eight days to go before the UK go to the polls Corbyn is now 4/1, which at the same stage in the US election, Trump was as short as 11/4.
With just under a month to go until the US election, Democrat candidate Clinton was 3/20 to be named the winner, a price that is looks huge compared to that of Theresa May at the equivalent point the in the UK election (1.03). In a similar to trend the odds of those of Trump and Corbyn, the gap between these prices has closed considerably. With just eight days to go, the Conservative leader is now only 2/9 to retain her position whilst at the equivalent stage in the US elections, Clinton was 33/100.
If Jeremy Corbyn continues to follow the Donald Trump trend, expect his odds to slowly drift as we get nearer to the election, as high-staking punters lap up the extra value on May. However, it may well be that on June 9th we are looking at a third shock result in two years as the UK election follows the pattern of both the US election and the EU Referendum.
