At one point on Friday morning it looked likely that Boris Johnson would be the next Prime Minister
Throughout the whole campaign, Theresa May was 'strong' and reasonably 'stable' at the top of the market to be the next Prime Minister. Despite her party seeing their lead in the polls disintegrate, she still remained a clear odds-on favourite throughout. However, come 10pm on Thursday 8th of June, her position at the top looked anything but strong and stable.
Following the release of the exit polls at 10pm, bookmakers reacted by pushing her odds out to as big as 4/7 (63.6% implied probability of success) easily the biggest price she had been at any point in the election campaign.
Things were to get worse for Tory party followers as the results continued to come in with the current Prime Minister’s odds drifting to as big as 6/4 (40%) just after 1.35am.
Her odds continued to fluctuate throughout thereafter, hitting 1/3 just after 2.45am only to return to even money again by 5.11am. As the sun began to rise and the night turned to morning, her odds continued to strengthen, first to 1/5 by 8.05am until eventually hitting the 1/14 (93.3%) mark just after 10.20am as it was announced she intended to seek permission from the Queen to form a government.
Jeremy Corbyn
It was an equally eventful night for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn whose party achieved massive gains across the UK, denying the landslide victories the Tories had anticipated when first calling the snap election back in April. Corbyn oversaw a campaign that gathered unrelenting momentum, engaging the youth vote in a way that has not been seen for a generation. His odds to be next PM were continuously cut throughout the campaign, yet still, anything but a Tory majority looked extremely unlikely.
Then came the exit polls and suddenly bookmakers began to panic. The 5/1 (16.7%) was soon gone and by 10.42pm Corbyn was now as short as 2/1 (33.3%) to be the UK’s next PM.
Thereafter, his odds followed a similar pattern to those of May as he emerged as a genuine contender. As 1am approached he was as short as 6/4 and for the next hour his odds continued to contract. The 6/4 became even money until at one stage, just after 1.20am he was more likely than not to be Prime Minister and odds-on at 10/11 (52.4%).
The Labour leader managed to stay strong at the top of the market for the next hour or so until reality began to take hold from around 4am. From 13/8, his odds soon drifted to 6/1 before hitting 14’s (6.7%) just before 5.30am. His price would contract again for a short period after that but by 8am all hope evaporated with odds of 25/1 available soon after 10am.
Suprise contenders
As well as the two key protagonists, there were intriguing moves for other Conservative party members as the doubts over Theresa May’s future began to surface. Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd and David Davis all saw their odds slashed as the results began to filter through but it was the move for former London mayor Boris Johnson that really caught the eye.
Boris Johnson comes in on Theresa May post election like... pic.twitter.com/XQYUaj1Dfk
— Oddschecker (@Oddschecker) June 8, 2017
100/1 at the start of the day, as the exit polls dropped, Bo Jo saw his odds slashed to 10/1 within ten minutes. Just half an hour later he had halved in price again and was now just 5/1 with a number of bookies. At just after 7am on Friday morning he was at his shortest and just 7/4 (36.4%) to be the next Prime Minister. Again, his odds started to drift as it became clear Theresa May would not resign and intended to form a government .
