UK Local Elections 2018: Labour backed to make gains in Tory strongholds

UK Local Elections 2018: Labour backed to make gains in Tory strongholds

With the results of the local elections released later this evening, Labour could be the big winners.

Barnet 

Outcome Odds Bet Ratio
Labour Majority 2/5 53%
Conservative Majority 9/4 40%
No Overall Control 8/1 7%
 

In what was a Tory stranglehold before Sury Hatri's departure after the 2014 election, Labour are odds-on favourites to win the most seats in Barnet. 

There has been significant support for the Conservatives though, with 40% of bets and as the area has a high Jewish population, this may not be as clear cut as the odds suggest with the anti-Semitism row within the Labour party sure to play a role in those voters' minds.

Hillingdon

Outcome Odds Bet Ratio
Conservative Majority 1/25 58%
Labour Majority 14/5 38%
No Overall Control 20/1 4%
 

In what is a high profile battleground for Labour and the Conservatives, with Boris Johnson's Uxbridge seat and shadow chancellor John McDonnell also a local MP, the Tories are extremely likely to come out on top. 

Even with very short 1/25 odds they have accounted for 58% of bets to win the most seats. A more likely outcome than a Labour majority is for them to gain ground in the borough.

Kensington and Chelsea 

Outcome Odds Bet Ratio
Conservative Majority 1/25 32%
No Overall Control 12/1 22%
Labour Majority 14/1 46%
 

Labour could be poised to cause another major scalp over the Tories in Kensington and Chelsea, following the general election success.

The Conservatives are in a period of transition here, with more than a third of the party's candidates standing down following the Grenfell Tower fire. Although they are big favourites to hold onto their majority at 1/25, it's Labour attracting more support at 14/1 with 46% of bets compared to 32% for the Tories.

Kingston Upon Thames 

Outcome Odds Bet Ratio
Lib Dem Majority 1/4 40%
Conservative Majority 3/1 34%
No Overall Control 8/1 26%
 

Vince Cable will be looking to capitalise on Lib Dem success at the snap election and hold off the Conservatives. Though the Tories took control in from the Lib Dems in 2014, that looks unlikely this time around with a Lib Dem Majority odds-on at 1/4 and 40% of bets.

Richmond Upon Thames 

Outcome Odds Bet Ratio
Lib Dem Majority 2/5 46%
Conservative Majority 2/1 39%
No Overall Control 10/1 15%
 

Another council that the Lib Dems have recently lost to the Conservatives but look like taking back, with 46% of bets at odds of 2/5. The Conservatives have a reasonable chance of keeping control though as a 2/1 shot and have picked up 39% of bets.

Sutton

Outcome Odds Bet Ratio
Lib Dem Majority 1/5 43%
Conservative Majority 7/2 43%
No Overall Control 10/1 14%
 

Sutton has been controlled by the Lib Dems since 1986 but this could be the year where the Conservatives take control, having come close to winning Carshalton and Wallington in the general election. 

Though the Tories are best price 7/2, they have accounted for 43% of bets in the market in what should be a close race.

Swindon

Outcome Odds Bet Ratio
Conservative Majority 5/4 21%
No Overall Control 5/4 8%
Labour Majority 7/2 71%
 

If Labour are to form a national government they will need to win places like Swindon and, as such, they have been focusing a lot of attention on the area. 

Though they are 7/2 to win a majority, they have seen a huge proportion of bets in the market with 71% compared to 21% for the Conservatives. Interestingly No Overall Control has not seen much support despite being the joint favourite with a Conservative Majority.

Trafford

Outcome Odds Bet Ratio
No Overall Control 1/1 43%
Conservative Majority 11/8 19%
Labour Majority 4/1 38%
 

Trafford is another priority for Labour in these elections, with Jeremy Corbyn launching the party's local campaign here. The Conservatives have had control since 2004 so a Labour win would be a surprise and a big coup. 

Labour have picked up 38% of bets at 4/1 just behind the even-money Conservatives, with 43% of the money.

Wandsworth

Outcome Odds Bet Ratio
Labour Majority 4/6 48%
Conservative Majority 5/4 37%
No Overall Control 10/1 15%
 

Along with, Kensington and Chelsea, this is another Conservative stranglehold that Labour will have their eye on having won the Battersea seat in the general election. 

A large proportion of residents voted remain in the EU Referendum and that could push them away from the Government. Bookies clearly agree, making a Labour majority the 4/6 favourite, with the Conservatives 5/4. Labour have also accounted for more bets, with 48% compared to the Tories' 37%.

Westminster

Outcome Odds Bet Ratio
Conservative Majority 1/6 28%
Labour Majority 10/3 60%
No Overall Control 20/1 12%
 

Westminster has been under Tory control since it was created but Labour's recent success in the capital could cause another shock here with social housing and number of EU migrants on the agenda. 

Labour would have to win a huge number of votes to win but that hasn't stopped them gaining support in the betting, with 60% of bets at odds of 10/3. As 1/6 favourites, the Conservatives have picked up 28% of bets.