We reveal the latest in the UK political markets.
With the UK heading to the polls in just under a month, the political betting markets are fluctuating on a daily basis.
But which political party is the favourite to gain the most seats? Will there be an overall majority? What are the chances of a second EU referendum? When will Brexit actually happen?
Most seats
The Conservative Party are clear favourites to win the most seats in the next general election, and are priced at 1/14 to do so.
That’s the equivalent of a 93% implied probability that the Tories win the most seats after December 12th.
On the other side of parliament, Labour have drifted out to a lengthy 12/1 in the market. In implied probability terms, that’s just a 7.7% chance of winning.
Overall majority
This is another market that the Tory party continue to dominate, especially following Nigel Farage’s statement that the Brexit Party would not contest 317 Conservative-held seats.
Odds have been cut from 5/6 into 8/13 that the eventual result of the general election will be a Conservative majority.
The next most likely outcome in that market is no overall majority, which is priced at 13/8.
In regards to a Labour majority government, it's a lowly 28/1 according to bookmakers.
Second EU referendum
With the Tory party looking set to win the election (according to bookmakers), there is little chance that the UK is subject to a second EU referendum.
No second EU referendum is currently the strong favourite at 1/4. On the other side, it’s 11/4 that we have another EU referendum before 2021.
Brexit date
With the October 31st deadline scuppered, bookmakers are predicting that the UK will leave the EU between January and June 2020.
That’s the favourite in the market at 1/2, followed by not before 2022 which is priced at 10/3.
April 2020 to June 2020 is 8/1, followed by October 2019 to December 2019, available at 16/1 to happen before the end of this year.
