Our data shows how the general election will play out according to the betting markets.
With the general election less than a month away, politicians are hitting the campaign trail and political punters are scouring the markets for a hidden bit of value.
But will Boris Johnson gain a full majority government? Which political party is the favourite to win in my constituency?
Luckily, Oddschecker have taken a look at the political markets to find out what exactly is going on ahead of December 12th.
Constituency betting
Using our interactive map, punters and those interested in politics can scour the country and see exactly which political party is expected to win in each individual constituency.
The graph is interactive, zoom in and out and hover over each constituency to see its name and favourite to win.
Bookmakers have priced up most constituencies, though they have avoided those that are deemed almost uncontested due to the dominance of one party.*
The Conservative Party won 318 seats in the 2017 general election. One of the most significant moments in the build-up to this year’s election was the Brexit Party announcing they would not contest any of the Conservative seats won in 2017.
The floods of blue across the map this year match up fairly similarly with the 2017 result, which is reflected in the extremely short price about the Conservatives winning the most seats.
*Despite there not being markets, these seats are displayed on the map as the colour of the party that is expected to win.
Conservative overall majority
The Conservative Party are the clear favourites in the overall majority market. The Tories are expected to record a convincing victory, despite the apparent momentum of opposition parties.
The price on a Tory majority had lengthened from 2/5 best price, out to odds of 1/2, but has since returned to 2/5.
To equate that into implied percentage chance, the Conservative party have a 71.4% chance of gaining the majority being eagerly sought by Boris Johnson.
No overall majority
This is the next most likely outcome, according to British bookies, priced at 5/2. No overall majority had shortened slightly when the Conservative majority drifted, but it has now settled around the 9/4 mark with most bookmakers.
Labour have very little chance of gaining a majority government and are priced at 33/1 to do so. In percentage chances, that’s just a 2.9% chance.
How are the main party leaders expected to fare?
If any seat is supposed to be assured for a particular political party, it should be the constituency that said leader is standing in.
But just how likely are each of the main party leaders to retain their constituency?
We had a look into Boris Johnson’s seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Jeremy Corbyn’s stronghold of Islington North, Jo Swinson’s seat in Dunbartonshire East and Caroline Lucas’ constituency of Brighton Pavilion.
Boris Johnson (Conservative)
No surprises here, Johnson is clear favourite to win his constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and is priced at 1/6 to do so.
That’s an implied probability of 85.7% that it votes Tory. Elsewhere, Labour are the next biggest challengers at 4/1, followed by Liberal Democrats (25/1).
Jeremy Corbyn (Labour)
Bookmakers do not see this seat as even a remote contest, with Corbyn and the Labour priced at 1/33 to retain the seat.
That’s a percentage chance of 97.1% that Islington North remains red. Elsewhere, the next nearest challengers are the Libral Democrats, priced at 10/1.
Jo Swinson (Liberal Democrats)
Swinson’s seat is a little more precarious, with her Lib Dem party priced at just 1/4 to be elected in Dunbartonshire East.
The SNP are the next nearest challengers at 11/4, in what should essentially be a two horse race.
Elsewhere, the Conservative Party and Labour Party are both 50/1.
Caroline Lucas (Green Party)
The only constituency in the UK currently where the Green party are favourite is Brighton pavilion, of which Lucas sits.
Lucas is an enormous favourite to retain her seat and the only seat held by the Green Party.
Currently priced at 1/50, it looks all but certain she’ll hold onto her seat.
