We've looked at the latest betting data in the crucial swing states, which could decide the winner of the US election.
- The US election could be won or lost in just a handful of key swing states, with Georgia, Pennsylvania and Florida likely to be crucial.
- Oddschecker punters are backing Joe Biden to flip Texas, which has been Republican since 1976.
With just days remaining until the United States heads to the polls, special attention has now turned to the key swing states.
We've looked at the latest betting data on some of the most important battlegrounds, where there have been some interesting movements in recent days.
In our US election preview podcast, sponsored by Betfair Exchange, we asked the two political betting analysts for their views on the swing states. You can watch their insight below.
Trump has chance in crucial Pennsylvania
The Democrats are the firm favourites in Pennsylvania at 1/2 in a crucial state. However, Oddschecker punters think Trump still has a chance.
The polls have Biden leading by 7 points at the moment, and his odds reflect that, but punters are not giving up on Trump just yet.
In the last 24 hours, the Republicans have taken 60% of bets in the market.
"If he wins those three states, he's won..."— oddschecker (@oddschecker) October 30, 2020
@paulmotty identifies the three most important states for Joe Biden to win.#Election2020 w/ @BetfairExchange
Watch the full feature length preview: https://t.co/kfeXbmTcLE pic.twitter.com/J7E7ulvjS4
Speaking on the Odsdchecker podcast, professional gambler and political analyst Paul Krishnamurty said:
“The most important state is Pennsylvania. I know that Florida is the famous state, and it’s a 50/50 contest.
“But, in reality, when you look at the Electoral College numbers – Trump isn’t going to win without Pennsylvania.
“Because there’s a big correlation between Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The latter is widely regarded as the hardest of the three to win.
“If Biden wins those three states (he’s ahead in all of them), and he doesn’t lose any Clinton states – he’s won.
“I would put everything down to Pennsylvania.”
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Democrats shortening in Georgia
Georgia has been a Republican stronghold in recent years, but there has been a notable shift in the betting in the last week.
Having been as big as 5/2 last month, the Democrats’ odds have quickly been contracting. Now, with just four days to go, they have been cut into as short as 1/1 to win Georgia. A best price of 5/4 is still available but that may not last long at the current rate of betting.
Biden was rallying in Warm Springs earlier this week, a red-state town, where voters flocked to Trump in 2016. The polls now give Biden a 5-point lead in Georgia too, which the betting markets will be reacting to.
Oddschecker users are favouring the Democrats here too, in the last 24 hours, 58% of bets in our market have been on them.
Florida very tight in the betting
The Republicans are favourites at 4/5, but Biden is making inroads in both the polls and betting.
The Democrats are as short as 10/11 with some bookmakers, having been odds-against with all firms last month.
Both Trump and Biden were campaign in Florida on Thursday. They know just how important the state is in their route to winning the Electoral College.
Oddschecker users are favouring the Republicans at the moment, but not by much. In the last week, 56% of bets in our market have been on Florida to remain red, showing just how close it is in one of the most important battleground states.
Biden being backed to take Texas
Texas hasn’t voted Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976, but the betting suggests they may just have a chance to win it.
In the last seven days, The Democrats have taken a massive 70% of bets in the market through Oddschecker.
At as big as 11/4, punters think Biden is overpriced in what would be a momentous victory for the Democrats if they won Texas.
The polls have Biden closing in on Trump with every passing day, and it could turn into a toss-up between the two parties.
Kamala Harris is making the long journey there today to try and conjure up more support for their campaign.
It very well could be a 50/50 battle in Texas, so the 5/2 widely available on the Democrats is being lapped up by Oddschecker users.
US election betting update: The latest odds and activity
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