Support grows for Donald Trump as some bookmakers narrowly increase his chances of winning the election.
- Joe Biden is still very strong in the market, the 8/15 favourite.
- Some bookmakers have clipped in Donald Trump's odds over the weekend, but he's still trailing at a best price of 15/8.
- After the early voting, there's been some interesting activity in the swing states - where the Republicans have strengthened in the market to win Florida.
2020 US election odds: Weekend betting support for Trump as swing states heat up
Betting on the 2020 US election hit new heights this weekend as more and more people headed to the election betting market aiming to make a quick buck on the upcoming vote.
The election has already set new betting records all around the world, with Betfair Exchange confirming their market had passed the record £200million matched mark. This number is expected to reach over £400million before the result is announced.
Thousands of people around the world would have placed a bet on the Donald Trump vs Joe Biden this weekend, and our data indicates that just over 66% of Oddschecker punters picked Donald Trump as their bet.
2020 Election Odds: Joe Biden's Odds Of Winning The Election
Joe Biden is the favorite to win the 2020 US election with the bookmakers, his odds currently sit at 8/15, which implies he’s got a 65.2% chance of winning the election.
Joe Biden overtook Donald Trump as the betting favorite back in May. However, at the beginning of 2020 his odds only implied he had a 13% chance of being elected.
2020 Election Odds: Donald Trump’s Odds Of Winning The Election
Donald Trump was the long-time betting favorite to win the 2020 US election, his odds at one point in February implied he had a 61.9% chance of defeating Joe Biden.
Donald Trump’s odds now sit at 15/8 (a standout best price from Paddy Power and Betfair) which imply he’s got a 34.8% chance of securing another term.
US election swing states: Battle heats up in key areas
After a weekend of last-minute campaigning from both Trump and Biden, the early voting stage has passed and there's been some interesting activity in the swing states betting.
Priced at even money just over a week ago, the Republicans have now strengthened their position in the betting market to win Florida, at a best price of 8/11. In the last 7 days, 62% of bettors on our Florida market have sided with the Republicans.
Pennsylvania, which is widely regarded to be the most crucial state for Joe Biden, tells a different story to Florida. The odds here point to a Democrat victory, at a best price of 8/15. Those odds exactly match the best price that Biden wins the election, and suggest a 65.2% chance of that outcome.
Georgia has been particularly interesting over the past month or so. A Republican stronghold in recent years, the Democrats had shortened as far as even money from 5/2 over recent weeks. However, a fllurry of bets on the Republicans has seen them cut back in to as short as 3/5 this morning. Those odds imply a 62.5% probability Georgia stays red.
Watch our US election betting preview with two of the country's top political betting analysts for a full overview of the key swing states and much more on YouTube.
Voter turnout could have big impact on the result
Recent reports have suggested that we could see record turnout in the 2020 election, with surging early vote numbers particularly in some of the swing states. Some states have reportedly passed the 2016 final count numbers already.
On 30th September, the odds of a 60%+ turnout sat around 3/1, which indicated just a 25% chance. However, the bookmakers now have the odds set at 1/8, which implies an 88% chance of a 60%+ turnout.
In our US election preview podcast, political betting analyst Paul Krishnamurty highlighted that the main reason polls ever get a result wrong is that one side is more motivated than the other. If turnout is as significant as the odds suggest, then greater enthusiasm from one side would likely have a huge impact on the final result.
"It's the biggest single reason that polls ever get things wrong..."
— oddschecker (@oddschecker) October 31, 2020
@paulmotty says we shouldn't distrust polls just because of recent misses.#Election2020 w/ @BetfairExchange
Watch the full feature length preview: https://t.co/6x9pAJaFPR pic.twitter.com/xYYJxcjm2Y
2020 Presidential Election Odds and Latest Betting
| Best Odds | Implied % Chance | % of money staked this weekend | % of number of bets this weekend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 8/15 | 65.2% | 46% | 31% |
| Donald Trump | 15/8 | 34.8% | 53% | 66% |
For large parts of this week, Donald Trump accounted for the majority of bets on the market, but the largest volume of money was being wagered on Joe Biden. However, this weekend not only did Donald Trump account for 66% of all bets placed on Oddschecker, but he also accounted for 53% of the money staked on the outcome of the election.
The biggest bet placed on the 2020 election this weekend via Oddschecker was on Donald Trump winning. However, the next three largest stakes were all on Joe Biden.
2020 US Election Betting: October Overview
Donald Trump accounted for just shy of 63% of all bets placed in the 2020 US election Oddschecker market during October. However, the President only received 39% of the money staked on the election in the same time period.
There were plenty of ‘high-rollers’ looking to make a quick win on the election in October, as all five of the biggest wagers put down were on Joe Biden winning.
|
|
% of bets placed in October |
% of money staked this weekend |
|
Donald Trump |
63% |
39% |
|
Joe Biden |
32% |
61% |
Donald Trump’s Election Odds And Betting Compared To 2016
As you’ll see in the table below, the 2020 US election is following a very similar trend to the 2016 election. In 2016, Donald Trump was the betting outsider, however, there were considerably more people wagering Trump compared to Hillary Clinton.
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
Donald Trump (2016) |
|
Joe Biden |
Donald Trump (2020) |
|
Jan 2016 |
14% |
23% |
Jan 2020 |
8% |
55% |
|
Feb 2016 |
26% |
12% |
Feb 2020 |
4% |
47% |
|
Mar 2016 |
8% |
14% |
Mar 2020 |
24% |
47% |
|
Apr 2016 |
7% |
15% |
Apr 2020 |
25% |
60% |
|
May 2016 |
7% |
47% |
May 2020 |
29% |
58% |
|
June 2016 |
15% |
60% |
June 2020 |
37% |
54% |
|
July 2016 |
25% |
49% |
July 2020 |
29% |
57% |
|
Aug 2016 |
22% |
39% |
Aug 2020 |
34% |
59% |
|
Sept 2016 |
31% |
35% |
Sept 2020 |
41% |
52% |
|
Oct 2016 |
37% |
55% |
Oct 2020 |
32% |
63% |
The following table shows the odds for both candidates in the run-up to the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections.
Implied chance of winning (UK odds) on the 1st of each month
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
Donald Trump (2016) |
|
Joe Biden |
Donald Trump (2020) |
|
Jan 2016 |
58% (8/11) |
11% (8/1) |
Jan 2020 |
13% (13/2) |
52% (10/11) |
|
Feb 2016 |
52% (10/11) |
23% (10/3) |
Feb 2020 |
14% (6/1) |
57% (3/4) |
|
Mar 2016 |
62% (8/13) |
29% (5/2) |
Mar 2020 |
13% (13/2) |
60% (2/3) |
|
Apr 2016 |
68% (8/17) |
17% (5/1) |
Apr 2020 |
42% (11/8) |
50% (1/1) |
|
May 2016 |
74% (4/11) |
22% (7/2) |
May 2020 |
44% (13/10) |
50% (1/1) |
|
June 2016 |
65% (8/15) |
33% (2/1) |
June 2020 |
48% (11/10) |
48% (11/10) |
|
July 2016 |
74% (4/11) |
25% (3/1) |
July 2020 |
60% (4/6) |
36% (7/4) |
|
Aug 2016 |
65% (8/15) |
35% (15/8) |
Aug 2020 |
62% (5/8) |
36% (7/4) |
|
Sept 2016 |
74% (4/11) |
25% (3/1) |
Sept 2020 |
50% (1/1) |
50% (1/1) |
|
Oct 2016 |
70% (4/9) |
27% (11/4) |
Oct 2020 |
58% (5/7) |
42% (11/8) |
|
Nov 2016 |
71.4% (2/5) |
27% (11/4) |
Nov 2020 |
65% (8/15) |
35% (15/8) |
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