2020 US Election Odds: Biden ahead with bookies as counting continues in states

2020 US Election Odds: Biden ahead with bookies as counting continues in states

As the US election rumbles on into another day, we've looked at the latest betting in the remaining swing states and what each candidate needs to win.

  • Joe Biden is the clear bookies’ favourite to win the 2020 US election, priced as short as 1/12.
  • Donald Trump has been steadily drifting since Wednesday afternoon and is now a best price of 9/2.
  • All eyes are on the remaining swing states, with the odds suggesting Biden will hold Arizona and Nevada to clinch victory.

 

2020 US Election Odds: Biden clear bookies’ favourite in swing states

As many onlookers expected, the US election has become a protracted and complicated race. The state of play with the bookies at the moment is that Joe Biden is the clear favourite to win. His odds of 1/5 equate to an implied probability of 83.3%.

However, both sides have already said they’re preparing for legal battles, with Donald Trump’s campaign saying they will formally request a recount in Wisconsin. They've also launched legal bids to stop the count in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Protests have already been sparked across the country as the two sides clash over vote counting.

While we might not get a definitive answer to who will occupy the White House anytime soon, the betting is now pointing to a clear Joe Biden victory.

Latest 2020 US election odds

  Best Odds Implied % Chance
Joe Biden 1/5 83.3%
Donald Trump 9/2 18.2%

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What does Joe Biden need to win the election?

At the time of writing, Biden has 243 Electoral College votes, while Trump has 214. The two candidates are racing to the magic number of 270. It's all coming down to a handful of key battlegrounds, but counting will take longer in some than others.

Wisconsin looks set to follow neighbouring Michigan 

UK media outlets report that Michigan has turned blue and reports in the US have called Wisconsin as a Democrat win too. Sportsbooks have suspended betting on Wisconsin, and while this hasn’t been officially called, Biden looks set to gain another 10 Electoral College votes from there.

That’s unlikely to be the last we see of those states though. As previously mentioned, Donald Trump’s campaign is expected to launch a legal challenge should these not go his way.

Biden expected to clinch victory with Arizona and Nevada

If Michigan and Wisconsin are indeed Democrat wins, then Biden would only need to hold Arizona and Nevada in order to reach 270 Electoral College votes. He’s currently got a relatively narrow lead in those states according to the latest numbers, but with mail-in ballots expected to favour the Democrats, he’s the clear favourite with bookmakers.

In Arizona, a Democrat win was as short as 1/7 in the early hours of this morning, but they’ve since drifted slightly to a best price of 1/3 as the Republicans closed the vote gap.

It’s a similar story in Nevada, where a Democrat win had been priced as short as 1/10 earlier today. While some bookies still make it 1/9, others have settled around odds of 1/5. That’s still an implied probability of 90.9% that Nevada is blue. Counting has been suspended there until this evening UK time.

 

Can Donald Trump still win the election?

It’s looked less and less likely that Donald Trump remains in the White House, with his path to victory now extremely narrow.

If Trump loses Wisconsin it looks unlikely

Should Wisconsin be confirmed as a Democrat win, Trump would have a very tricky path to victory. Not only would he need to hold either of the aforementioned Arizona (11 votes) or Nevada (6 votes), he would also have to win Georgia (16 votes), Pennsylvania (20 votes) and North Carolina (15 votes).

North Carolina is his best chance of those remaining states. The Republicans are leading currently with counting almost complete, and bookies make them the 1/5 favourites to win that state. That’s an implied probability of 83.3%.

Bookies make Democrats favourites in Georgia and Pennsylvania 

It’s unlikely the race will hinge on these states after all, but it doesn’t look good for Trump in either. Both voted Trump in 2016, so these would be huge flips if they went blue. Trump has led the votes since the start, but again the impact of mail-in ballots is expected to favour Biden.

Georgia is still classed as a tossup and Trump was ahead this morning, but bookies make the Democrats odds-on favourites at 4/6. That’s an implied probability of 60% that it goes blue.

Pennsylvania is an even rosier picture in the betting for the Democrats. Bookies currently have them as 1/4 favourites to win there, an implied probability of 80%.

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You can follow all the latest odds movements and bet on the outcome in our US politics section.