Brexit deal odds: Bookies cut odds on no UK-EU trade deal being reached

Brexit deal odds: Bookies cut odds on no UK-EU trade deal being reached

Bookmakers have cut odds on UK and EU negotiators failing to reach an agreement by the 31st December deadline.

  • UK and EU negotiators are meeting for further talks on a Brexit trade deal in the hope of reaching an agreement before the 31st December deadline.
  • Bookmakers have cut odds on the no deal outcome, as short as 11/8.
  • The odds suggest a deal is more likely to be reached, with that outcome odds-on at 4/7.


Bookies cut odds on no UK-EU trade deal being reached

Talks on a UK-EU trade deal have rumbled into another week and this morning the price on a deal not being reached has been clipped in by the bookmakers.

Diplomats from both sides have been travelling between London and Brussels as the deadline for a deal looms large, but it seems no breakthrough has been made.

In light of the current impasse, bookmakers have cut odds on a deal failing to be reached from 2/1 into as short as 11/8. Meanwhile, the odds of 4/7 on the ‘Yes’ outcome still imply a 63.6% probability that a deal goes through in time.

The deadline for reaching an agreement on trade and various other complex issues including fishing and business rules, is set as 31st December.


Threats from key EU member states have seen talks stall

It’s been nearly 11 months since Britain officially exited the European Union on 31st January, and negotiators have needed every last bit of that period to get anywhere close to an agreement on these finer details. While a deal had looked more achievable previously, the last few days have seen veto warnings from key EU member states such as France cause significant friction.

The UK’s chief negotiator Lord Frost is in Brussels for discussions with Michel Barnier following Saturday’s talks between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister Boris Johnson. They’re also due to speak again on Monday evening.

Deal to be reached? Best Odds % of bets in last 7 days
Yes 4/7 56.7%
No 8/5 43.3%

Oddschecker spokesperson Callum Wilson: “We’ve seen a spike in activity on the UK-EU trade deal betting market in the past couple of days and, as we keep hearing of ‘sticking points’ and ‘stalemate’ out of London and Brussels, the price on no deal keeps shortening.

“The weight of money on our market still suggests punters expect a deal to be reached, but there’s every possibility that price on ‘No’ could get a lot shorter.”


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