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Brexit deal odds: No-deal now odds-on with bookies as PM sounds warning

Brexit deal odds: No-deal now odds-on with bookies as PM sounds warning

Odds on no UK-EU trade deal being struck have tumbled as talks continue to stall.

  • Odds on a UK-EU trade deal not to be reached have been cut from 2/1 into 4/7 since Monday.
  • The no-deal scenario is the most backed in our market in the last 24 hours, with 56% of bets.


No-deal Brexit odds-on as stalemate continues in Brussels

Bookmakers have slashed odds on a UK-EU trade failing to be reached, with the no-deal scenario tumbling to odds-on at 4/7.

As recently as Monday, the ‘no’ outcome in our trade deal market was priced at 2/1 when there was relative optimism that a deal would be struck in time. 

Now as the week of talks draws to a close and the 31st December deadline edges ever nearer, the bookies have run for cover. That odds movement equates to a jump from 33.3% to a 63.6% implied probability that a deal is not reached.


It’s been relatively even in the betting all week, but in the last 24 hours it’s the no-deal outcome that has been the most backed in our market with 56% of bets.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke yesterday following another fruitless meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels. The Prime Minister revealed there was a “strong possibility” the UK will fail to agree a trade deal with the EU, as he warned businesses to prepare for the repercussions of a no-deal Brexit.


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Oddschecker spokesperson Callum Wilson: “The odds suggested a fairly rosy picture at the beginning of the week, but days later and we’re looking at a betting market that’s flipped on its head.

“Back in June 2019, Boris Johnson quipped that the odds of a no-deal Brexit were ‘a million-to-one’ and given today’s prices anyone sat on a bet slip at those odds will be toasting the Prime Minister.”