The latest betting and polling suggests Labour face losing Hartlepool for the first time in over 50 years.
The Hartlepool by-election is in exactly a month and Labour must be very worried by the latest polling and betting market trends.
Since yesterday, the Conservatives have been very strongly backed by punters, with bookmakers cutting their odds from 1/1 into firm favourites now.
Where is the money going?
In the last seven days on oddschecker, the Conservatives have taken 66% of all bets in the market.
In turn, Labour have drifted out to 11/8, from 4/5 favourites yesterday.
The odds paint a very worrying picture for Keir Starmer and his team.
The Hartlepool seat has been a Labour stronghold since 1964, so it’s no surprise to see the latest polling and betting causing grave concern among Labour supporters.
The most recent polls are in line with the betting. The latest polling has Boris Johnson’s Conservatives ahead by seven points. The Tory candidate, Jill Mortimer, will win 49% of the vote according to the poll, compared to Labour’s candidate, Dr Paul Williams, who is currently polling at 42%.
This would be the first seat that the Tories have won from Labour in the north-east since 1959.
The poll suggests almost all of the Brexit Party votes in 2019 will go to the Conservative Party. The Brexit Party won 25.8% of the share in 2019 for context.
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The last time a Tory MP was elected in Hartlepool was 1959, but if the latest trends are anything to go by, they have a real chance of making a hefty dent in Labour’s red wall.
This would no doubt be a complete disaster for Labour should they lose this seat and it’s a big blow to Kier Starmer’s leadership.
With a month still to go, there’s time for plenty to change, but right now the betting and the polls suggest things are looking ominous for Labour.