The polling suggests the Conservatives have opened up a sizeable lead in the polls to win the Hartlepool by-election this week, despite Labour’s 2019 victory.
Conservatives poised to win Hartlepool
After Tuesday morning’s polling results were released for the Hartlepool by-election (Survation), bookies have now slashed odds for the Conservatives winning the seat to as short as 1/7.
The polling suggests Boris Johnson’s party have opened up a whopping 17-point lead over Labour in the constituency, despite the latter currently holding the seat following the 2019 General Election.
As a result, Labour have ballooned to 4/1 to retain their seat, which will be music to the ears of those on the right side of the political spectrum.
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What happened in 2019?
On the face of it, this looks like significant news due to the fact that Labour won this seat two years ago, although digging deeper, the polling results perhaps aren’t as surprising as one might think.
Labour candidate Mike Hill did win with a 37.7% vote share in the last General Election, but the right-wing vote was split between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party—claiming a 28.9% and 25.8% share respectively—and with no Brexit Party on the ballot this time around, this split will no longer be an issue.
Regardless of this caveat, losing this constituency would still be a big blow for Labour, who would have been hoping the recent allegations aimed at Boris Johnson’s conduct would have cut through to this sort of electorate.