Having beaten Rishi Sunak in the Tory leadership contest, does Liz Truss stick or twist when it comes to calling the next general election?
Back in early August, Truss told Conservative party members: “I will not have an election before 2024”. Might her stance change now she has won the race to replace Boris Johnson?
Unless an earlier one is called, the next election isn't due until January 2025. This represents five years (maximum term) from the day the current Parliament first met (Tuesday 17th December 2019). The latest possible polling day comes 25 days after that date, which is 24th January 2025.
Year of Next General Election Betting Odds
2024 remains the favourite year for the next general election with the bookmakers at a best price 1/5, with 2024 or later a similarly short 4/13.
Truss, however, will possibly be wrestling with the balance of calling an early election to capitalise on any ‘honeymoon’ period in the polls versus the risk of forcing herself out straight away – especially considering she wasn’t the first choice for party members.
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Truss is the third Prime Minister to be chosen by the Tories in mid-parliament since party members got the final say in leadership contests, but the first to win through party members overturning the MPs’ choice from the earlier rounds.
Only 50 of the party’s 357 MPs voted for her in the first round of the leadership contest in July, while she trailed both Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt in the next three rounds before nudging ahead of Mordaunt in round five to qualify for the final battle with Sunak.
Given we’re already almost a week into September, the bookmakers have 2022 as the year for the next general election as the biggest outsider in the market at a best price 13/1 (worst 8/1), while 2023 can be backed at a market leading 19/4 (general 7/2).
