Keir Starmer holds his strongest position yet in the race for Downing Street as attention turns to possible Conservative leader replacements for Rishi Sunak.
Bookmakers have cut the odds for Labour leader Keir Starmer to 1/9 (90% implied chance) to be in Downing Street following the next General Election.
Labour upset the odds to win the Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth by-elections, overturning a Conservative majority in these constituencies.
Rishi Sunak is now as long as 5/1 in the Prime Minister after the General Election odds market, and some bookmakers think the end is nigh for the Conservative leader.
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Next Prime Minister Odds
| PM after the next General Election | Odds | Implied % Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Keir Starmer | 1/9 | 90% |
| Rishi Sunak | 5/1 | 16.7% |
Following the double defeat for the Tories, bookmakers have cut Rishi Sunak’s odds to leave his role as party leader in 2024. At odds of 4/5, oddsmakers believe there’s a 55.6% chance Sunak will leave his role next calendar year.
The attention will then turn to who will replace Sunak as Conservative party leader. Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt currently lead the betting at odds of 7/2 and 5/1 respectively.
Next Conservative Leader Odds
| Next Conservative Pary Leader | Odds | Implied % Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kemi Badenoch | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Penny Mordaunt | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| James Cleverly | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Suella Braverman | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Boris Johnson | 18/1 | 5.3% |
Leon Blackman from oddschecker said: “A great night for Labour and Keir Starmer, upsetting the odds to overturn a majority in both Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth.
“This double victory has only strengthened their position in the betting markets ahead of next year’s election. Having previously been odds of 1/5, oddsmakers now give Starmer a 90% chance of being PM following the next election with odds of 1/9.”
Rishi Sunak Exit Date Odds
Blackman added: “The pressure is now on Sunak more than ever. Some bookmakers expect Sunak to leave his role as party leader in 2024. If the bookmakers' projections are correct for the next general election (75% chance of a Labour majority), we could see his exit swiftly following the results.”
