Conservative Election Odds After Manifesto Release

Conservative Election Odds After Manifesto Release

Rishi Sunak has released the Conservative manifesto, how has it affected the Conservative's chances in the general election?

Conservative leader, Rishi Sunak has today unveiled his party manifesto, outlining the policies that would be implemented were they to win.

The document was headed by the slogan "clear plan, bold action, secure future", three promises that Sunak will be hoping can help turn the tide on the overwhelming support for their opposition, Labour.

Beyond this slogan, the conservative assured the public of a number of changes such as cutting 2p off National Insurance, implementing a national service for young people, boosting defence spending and increasing the amount of nurses and doctors in the NHS.

With recent polls suggesting that Labour are set to win by one of the biggest majorities in a decade, has the manifesto helped Sunak's fleeting chances in the upcoming election?

Conservative election odds

Despite positive reactions from the public on pledges to remove stamp duty up £425,000 for first-time buyers and tax ememptions for self employed, the Conservatives manifesto has made little impact on their chances.

They remain at a best price of 66/1 to win a majority giving them just a 1.5% implied chance.

Compared to Labour's 1/16 best price to win a majority it seems the Conservatives promises have generally fallen on deaf ears.

Government after the next general election: Odds

Government Best Price Implied Probability
Labour Majority 1/15 93%
Labour-Lib Dem Coalition 25/1 3.8%
Labour Minority 33/1 3%
Labour-Lib Dem-SNP-Green Coalition 33/1 3%
Conservative Majority 66/1 1.5%

 

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