Next Prime Minister Odds: Who won last night's general election debate?

Next Prime Minister Odds: Who won last night's general election debate?

Rishi Sunak's chances of serving another term as Prime Minister suffered yet another setback last night.

The Sky Debate did not go as planned for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak last night, as his attempt to reignite the Conservative campaign may have had the opposite effect.

Sunak faced tough questions from the audience, particularly regarding his early departure from the 80th D-Day anniversary event and the COVID-19 'partygate' scandal, casting doubt on whether he could be trusted.

He was also met with boos—the only ones of the night—when he blamed striking doctors for the rising NHS waiting lists.

In contrast, Keir Starmer had a relatively smoother experience. The Labour leader's main challenge came when host Ms. Rigby mocked his claim that there were no plans to raise taxes and when he was labeled a "political robot."

A YouGov poll revealed that 64% of viewers felt Starmer outperformed the prime minister.

Does Sunak still have a chance to serve another term as prime minister or has his fate been sealed?


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Next Prime Minister Odds

Candidate Best Odds Implied Chance
Keir Starmer 1/40 98%
Rishi Sunak 20/1 5%


Keir Starmer is the current resounding favourite at a best price of 1/40, giving him an implied chance of 98%.

It seems almost inevitable that the Labour party are going to win a large majority in the general election (see graphic below). 

On the other hand, Rishi Sunak's best odds stand at 20/1, giving him an implied chance of just 5%. The current Prime Minister's odds worsened from a previous best of 16/1 before the debate, indicating that the recent debate did not go as planned for the Conservatives.

This sentiment was echoed by three audience members who admitted they would be withdrawing their support from the Conservatives after what they had heard.


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