Reform Seats Odds: What are the odds on Nigel Farage being Prime Minister?

Reform Seats Odds: What are the odds on Nigel Farage being Prime Minister?

Recent polls suggest that Farage's Reform UK has overtaken Sunak's Conservatives in the opinion poll.

A poll released by YouGOV last night showed that Farage's Reform UK Party had overtaken Rishi Sunak's Conservatives for the first time in a national poll.

The Tories were relegated into third by voters with 18% of votes while Reform moved into second with 19%, an increase on 2% from the last poll.

This comes after Sunak released his party manifesto on Tuesday which among many things promised deep tax cuts.

Despite hoping to reignite the Conservative campaign with these policies, focus has remained on Sunak's highly criticised decision to leave a D-Day memorial events in France earlier than other world leaders and the lack of trust creatred by the 'partygate' scandal.

As people grow tired of the Conservatives Farage has stepped in to lead the Reform Party to offer voters what he described as a serious right wing option at this election.

Since then support has grown for the man who is best known for his successful campaign for Britain to leave the European Union as he pushes populist causes like tougher immegration laws.

Reform Party Seats Odds

Despite support growing for the Reform party it remains unlikely that they will be able to win many if any parliamentary seats in the upcoming election (see table below).

This is likely due to the fact that their support is spread accross the country as opposed to any concentrated areas.

They are currently a best price of 5/4 at Betfred for win 1-2 party seats in the general election.

Back Reform UK to win 1-2 seats in the upcoming election directly through oddschecker at a guaranteed best price here.

You can, however, get 5/2 best odds at Star Sports for Reform to take a 20% of higher share of the votes in the upcoming election.

Next Prime Minister Odds: Nigel Farage

Candidate Best Odds Implied Probability
Keir Starmer 1/40 98%
Rishi Sunak 20/1 5%
Kemi Badenoch 50/1 2%
Suella Braverman 50/1 2%
Nigel Farage 50/1 2%


It is almost a certainty that Keir Starmer will be the Next Prime Minister come July with a 98% implied probability.

Farage has been given almost no chance; however, it is unlikely that the Reform leader was interested in running in this election to win. Instead, he is likely looking ahead to the next general election after this as he looks to put himself at the forefront of the right of British politics for the future.


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