Who is leading the Conservative leadership race according to the bookmakers?
As the Conservative Party braces for a leadership change following Rishi Sunak’s resignation, today’s crucial vote will narrow the contenders from five to four.
In the last round, former Home Secretary Priti Patel was eliminated, securing just 14 votes, leaving Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat and Mel Stride.
Robert Jenrick emerged as a surprising frontrunner in late July, overtaking Kemi Badenoch in the betting and topped the first round of voting with 28 votes.
With Patel out of the race, her 14 votes will be redistributed and the remaining five candidates will be vying to secure those votes.
Today's vote is pivotal in determining which candidates will advance to the Conservative Party conference, where they will make their final pitches.
The process will continue with a series of debates and votes, culminating in a final choice made by party members in late October.
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Next Conservative Leader Odds
| Candidate | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Robert Jenrick | 11/10 | 48% |
| Kemi Badenoch | 2/1 | 33% |
| James Cleverly | 9/2 | 18% |
| Tom Tugendhat | 16/1 | 6% |
| Mel Stride | 50/1 | 1.9% |
Who is favourite to become the next Conservative leader?
Robert Jenrick has positioned himself as the frontrunner in the Conservative leadership race, with various bookmakers offering odds of 11/10 after he secured 28 votes in the first round of voting.
Jenrick's momentum is a reflection of his calculated campaign, having spent months focusing on reuniting the party around core Conservative values.
Once a Tory centrist, he has now embraced a harder stance on immigration, positioning himself as the candidate most aligned with the party's right wing.
Meanhile Kemi Badenoch, the second favourite at 2/1, garnered 22 votes in the first round of voting. Known for her unapologetically conservative views and tough stance on cultural issues, Badenoch has garnered significant support.
Today’s vote will narrow the field to four candidates, with James Cleverly,Tom Tugendhat and Mel Stride also vying to stay in the race.
Jenrick’s appeal among MPs and his growing support make him the candidate to beat, with the final outcome to be decided by party members in November.
