
The Conservative leadership contest heats up today at the Birmingham conference, where Tom Tugendhat and Kemi Badenoch will pitch their visions for the party.
The Conservative leadership contest is intensifying as candidates make their case at the party’s conference in Birmingham this week.
Tom Tugendhat and Kemi Badenoch will take to the stage today, aiming to sway members and MPs ahead of crucial votes next week.
Badenoch, known for her firm stance on identity politics and meritocracy, will emphasize her vision for a renewed party, while Tugendhat, with his military background and centrist appeal, seeks to position himself as a unifying figure.
Priti Patel and Mel Stride have already been eliminated from contention, having failed to secure enough support in the previous rounds of voting.
In the last round Robert Jenrick received 33 votes, Kemi Badenoch garnered 28 votes, while and James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat got 21 votes each.
The contest will ultimately be decided through a two-round voting process: MPs will narrow the field to two candidates on October 9 and 10, followed by a ballot among party members to determine the new leader.
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Next Tory Leader Odds
| Candidate | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Robert Jenrick | 8/11 | 58% |
| Kemi Badenoch | 5/2 | 29% |
| James Cleverly | 10/1 | 9% |
| Tom Tugendhat | 16/1 | 6% |
Robert Jenrick currently leads the betting at a best price of 8/11 with Betfred.
He has recieved 33% of total bets through oddschecker on the next Conservative leader market this month.
Who is running for Tory leader?
Kemi Badenoch
The former business secretary, Badenoch has emerged as a strong contender with her no-nonsense approach. She advocates for renewing capitalism and prioritizing the needs of British citizens, aiming to re-establish the party's connection with its base.
Badenoch's outspoken views on women's rights and identity politics have gained her a lot of attention, and she enjoys significant backing among party members.
Robert Jenrick
A former immigration minister, Jenrick is firmly aligned with the party's right, focusing on strict immigration policies and a willingness to reconsider the UK’s relationship with the European Convention on Human Rights.
His previous loyalty to Rishi Sunak has shifted as he now presents himself as a voice for the party’s more conservative members.
James Cleverly
The first candidate to officially announce his bid, Cleverly has positioned himself as a unifying figure within the Conservative Party.
With extensive cabinet experience as former home secretary, foreign secretary, and education secretary, he emphasizes the need to restore the party's reputation for economic growth and public service.
Cleverly seeks to appeal to a broad base, arguing that his experience makes him the right choice to lead during challenging times.
Tom Tugendhat
The former security minister, Tugendhat, is noted for his moderate stance and focus on rebuilding public trust.
As a former soldier, Tugendhat emphasizes security. His candidacy reflects a blend of traditional Tory values with a fresh perspective, appealing to both moderates and right-wing members within the party.
When will Tory leader be announced?
After making their cases to the party at the conference, MPs will carry out further rounds of voting to select two final candidates.
Once the final two candidates have been determined, the decision goes to the broader Conservative Party membership.
The party members will vote online from October 15th to October 31st.
The new leader of the Conservative Party will be named on November 2nd, following the completion of the online voting process.





