James Cleverly has surged in the Tory leadership betting market.
In a dramatic turn of events, James Cleverly has surged in the Tory leadership betting market, with his odds to become the next Conservative leader slashed from 10/1 to as short as 7/2 on Tuesday morning.
He is still available at a best price of 11/2 with Betway.
This sharp shift marks one of the most significant movements in the race so far, as support for Cleverly soared over just a few hours.
At the time of writing, he has captured 39% of all bets placed on Tuesday—a significant 16% rise compared to his share of the market on Monday.
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Next Conservative Leader Odds
| Candidate | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Robert Jenrick | 8/11 | 58% |
| Kemi Badenoch | 7/2 | 22% |
| James Cleverly | 11/2 | 15% |
| Tom Tugendhat | 18/1 | 5% |
Who is the favourite to be the next Conservative leader?
Robert Jenrick remains the betting favourite at 8/11 with 888sport, but his lead has weakened following backlash over his recent SAS comments.
Over 20 bookmakers on oddschecker have reduced their confidence in Jenrick’s chances on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch appears to be the biggest market loser this week. Once as short as 1/1 (implying a 50% chance of winning) at the beginning of September, her odds have drifted to 7/2 (best price Paddy Power) and continue to slide.
Badenoch, who held a 33% bet share in September, has seen her support plummet, dropping to just 7% on Tuesday. Even the outsider, Tom Tugendhat (18/1 with Starsports), has attracted more interest with an 11% bet share.
With Cleverly and Jenrick due to speak at the Conservative Party Conference on Tuesday, these odds are bound to see more twists and turns as the day progresses.
Quote from Oddschecker’s Leon Blackman: “The Conservative Party leadership race has been a two-horse contest between Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch, with both swapping positions as favorites since Rishi Sunak’s departure. However, James Cleverly has emerged as a serious contender on Tuesday, with his odds shortening from 10/1 to 7/2 and his bet share rising from 23% to 39%. Meanwhile, Badenoch’s bet share has sharply declined from 33% to 7% and her odds drifting by the minute.”
