When it comes to US Election betting, activity on the leading betting exchanges is a strong indicator of how the race is unfolding. Below we compare data from Smarkets, Betfair Exchange, and Matchbook.
The US Election is the most important betting event of the year and with £100s of Millions traded in the UK and Billions around the world, we can use betting data to get a good idea of how the US Presidential Election will unfold.
Three of the leading betting exchanges have betting data available to the public, and we are going to compare the odds and betting activity from Smarkets, Betfair Exchange, and Matchbook ahead of this evening's US Election.
Smarkets offers the lowest standard commission of any betting exchange in the UK, and while they are yet to hit the heights of their competitors, almost £10 million has been traded ahead of the US Election.
Matchbook is another big betting exchange used in the UK and with over £17 million traded on their Next Presidential Election Winner market, we can clearly see how big of a betting event there is.
Betfair Exchange is the biggest betting platform and the one that will generate the activity ahead of this Trump v Harris Election. Over £245 Million has already been traded on US Election markets and with hours and potentially days still left before the market closes, this number will continue to rise.
Let's compare the data from each to see how the odds and betting activity compare on each individual betting exchange.
Matchbook
US Election Odds and Betting Data From Betfair, Smarkets, and Matchbook
Here is a comparison of the betting odds and data from the three biggest betting exchanges in the UK, ahead of the US Election. This data should give you an insight into how the betting on each candidate is affecting Presidential Election predictions ahead of the official announcement.
| Candidate | Smarkets Odds (Implied Probability %) | Betfair Exchange Odds (Implied Probability %) | Matchbook Odds (Implied Probability %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 1.64 (61%) | 1.62 (61.7%) | 1.62 (61.7%) |
| Kamala Harris | 2.56 (39.1%) | 2.6 (38.5%) | 2.58 (38.8%) |
As we can see, things are fairly close on the betting exchanges in the UK. Donald Trump's implied probability hovers above 61% on all exchanges, while there is slightly more disparity in Kamala Harris' odds.
The betting activity on Smarkets has seen Harris shorten to 2.56 on their exchange, while the best price is 2.6 on Betfair Exchange. The profit on a £10 is not that different though, so you simply need to pick between your favourite platform.
Betfair Exchange Odds the Strongest Indicator After £190 Million Matched on US Election
While the odds are fairly consistent across the board, and all a good indicator of where we are currently at in the US Election, the sheer volume bet on Betfair Exchange shows the clearest public sentiment.
There has been over £250 Million matched across all US Election markets on Betfair Exchange, so if you are looking for the most consistent data, Betfair is the place to be.
