Incumbent Simon Harris is locked in a battle with Micheál Martin to continue as Prime Minister after this week's Irish General Election.
Ireland's general election takes place at the end of the month following Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Simon Harris' somewhat abrupt decision to dissolve parliament three months short of its natural five-year term.
Harris, leader of the centre-right Fine Gael, is looking to secure a fourth consecutive term for his party and will be going up against the Fianna Fáil party, headed by Micheál Martin, and Sinn Féin party, whose leader is Mary Lou McDonald, in this election.
This election will determine the makeup of the 33rd Dáil Éireann, the lower house of Ireland's parliament, which has been led by either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil for a century.
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When is the Irish General Election?
The Irish general election is set to take place on Friday, November 29, 2024. The election was officially called on November 8, 2024, three months ahead of schedule, as Fine Gael looked to capitalize on its dominant position in the polls.
Though voters might take to the polls on Friday, the election process takes a long time due to Ireland adoping a system called Proportional Representation by the Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV).
In Ireland’s general election, voters use a ranked-choice voting system where they list candidates in order of preference (1, 2, 3, etc.) on their ballot.
If a voter’s first-choice candidate is either elected or eliminated, their vote is transferred to their next preferred candidate.
The counting process occurs in rounds: the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated in each round, and their votes are redistributed based on voters’ preferences. This continues until all seats in a constituency are filled.
The country is divided into 43 constituencies, each electing three to five Teachtaí Dála (TDs), who are members of the Dáil Éireann, Ireland's lower house of parliament.
A total of 174 seats are contested. To form a government, a party or coalition must secure a majority of at least 88 seats in the Dáil.
If no single party achieves this, coalition negotiations typically follows.
Click here to see who is favourite to secure the most seats.
It is highly likely this will be the case in the upcoming election as polls show that support is divided among the major parties, with Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, and independent candidates all polling closely.
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Irish Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Simon Harris | 3/4 | 57% |
| Micheal Martin | 1/1 | 50% |
| Mary Lou McDonald | 7/1 | 13% |
There is very little to seperate Simon Harris and Michael Martin at the top of the betting with Simon Harris narrowly leading at a best price of 3/4 with BetMGM and Michael Martin trailing at 1/1 with the same bookmaker.
Irish Election Polls
The latest polls reveal a tight contest among Ireland's major parties ahead of the general election.
Fine Gael has experienced a resurgence recently, polling at approximately 24% after Fine Gael’s leader, Leo Varadkar, resigned in March and Harris, known as the “TikTok taoiseach” took over.
Fianna Fáil, led by Micheál Martin, who is the current deputy prime minister and foreign affairs minister trails slightly at 21%.
Meanwhile, Sinn Féin, which once commanded 36% support two years ago and won the popular vote in 2020, has seen its backing halved to 18%, attributed to controversies over immigration policies and internal scandals.
Smaller parties remain below 5%, but independents, collectively polling at 21%, are positioned to play a significant role in shaping the next Dáil as this divided landscape makes a coalition government likely.
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