Nigel Farage is being backed in the Next Prime Minister market after recruiting tycoon Nick Candy as Reform UK treasurer.
Following billionaire Nick Candy’s defection from the Conservatives to Reform UK, betting interest in his new political party has surged significantly.
More than 80% of the bets in the past 24 hours have backed Nigel Farage in the next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer market.
Currently best priced 5/2 on Betfred (shortest price 15/8), Farage remains the dominant name in this market, having received 77% of total bets since early December.
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Next Prime Minister Odds
| Next PM After Starmer | Best Odds | Worst Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Nigel Farage | 5/2 | 15/8 |
| Kemi Badenoch | 3/1 | 5/2 |
| Wes Streeting | 16/1 | 10/1 |
| Angela Rayner | 16/1 | 6/1 |
| Boris Johnson | 16/1 | 12/1 |
Despite the surge in bets for Farage, bookmakers expect Keir Starmer to cling on to power following the next election, with odds of 4/6 indicating a 57.5% probability.
However, there has been a notable increase in bets on Starmer’s Exit Date, with growing support for him to leave office in 2025, prompting odds to shorten from 3/1 to 11/4.
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Meanwhile, 67% of the bets placed through oddschecker in the past 24 hours have backed Reform UK in the Most Seats at the next General Election market.
Reform UK are currently listed as the third favourites in the betting at shortest odds of 5/2 (best 3/1 on 10bet), having opened at 12/1 when the market launched in mid-August.
Since the betting opened on oddschecker, 53% of all bets placed have backed Reform, compared to 24% for the Conservatives and 23% for Labour.
The chart below highlights the surge in Reform UK’s implied probability of winning the Most Seats, which has increased by more than 3.5 times according to current odds.
Leon Blackman from oddschecker said: “Reform UK has already been a dominant force in our political betting markets in recent months, and yesterday’s announcement of Nick Candy’s defection has triggered another wave of market activity. In the past 24 hours alone, 67% of bets placed on the ‘Most Seats’ market has backed Reform UK.
"Bookmakers have responded swiftly, cutting the party’s odds from 7/2 to 5/2, marking the shortest price since the market launched in mid-August, when Reform UK was available at 12/1. With momentum building, it will be interesting to see how betting markets continue to react to this news in the coming weeks.”
