Voters across England head to the polls on May 1st in crucial local elections that will test party leaderships and measure Reform UK's rise.
On May 1st, voters across England head to the polls for a crucial set of local elections, with over 1,600 council seats, six mayoralties, and the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary by-election up for grabs.
These elections are seen as a key political barometer, offering an early verdict on Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government and a major test for Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative leadership.
With Reform UK surging in the polls, the results could reshape the political landscape, signalling deep voter disillusionment with the two main parties and highlighting new dynamics ahead of future general elections.
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Reform Odds to Win the Next General Election
| Most Seats | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 13/8 | 38% |
| Conservatives | 9/4 | 31% |
| Reform | 9/4 | 31% |
| Liberal Democrats | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| Green | 750/1 | 0.13% |
Reform UK have been cut to 9/4 (Ladbrokes) to win the most seats at the next general election, reflecting their growing momentum and rising threat to both Labour and the Conservatives.
After finishing second to Labour in 89 constituencies at the 2024 general election and surging ahead of the Conservatives in national polling, Reform are increasingly seen as a serious force in British politics.
Their performance in the upcoming local elections on May 1st - where they have little to defend but hundreds of potential gains - could further underline their rise.
A strong showing would fuel the narrative that Reform are no longer just a protest party, but a genuine contender to reshape the political map.
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Runcorn And Helsby By-election Winner Odds
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform | 4/9 | 69% |
| Labour | 5/2 | 29% |
| Conservatives | 150/1 | 0.7% |
This is the first parliamentary by-election under Keir Starmer’s leadership, and with Labour previously dominant in the seat, the result will serve as a key test of the party’s support less than a year into their time in government.
Reform UK are currently the favourites to win the Runcorn And Helsby By-election at a best price of 4/9 with William Hill.
Runcorn and Helsby is Labour’s 16th safest seat, won in 2024 with a 52.9% vote share and a 14,696 majority.
If Reform UK were to win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, it would be hugely significant, marking their first-ever by-election victory and confirming that their recent surge in national polls is translating into real electoral success.
It would shatter Labour's hold on what had been seen as a safe "red wall" seat and expose deep dissatisfaction with both the Labour government and the Conservatives.
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Next Prime Minister Odds
| Next Prime Minister | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Nigel Farage | 3/1 | 25% |
| Kemi Badenoch | 6/1 | 14% |
| Wes Streeting | 10/1 | 9% |
| Robert Jenrick | 12/1 | 7.7% |
