Angela Rayner’s hopes of succeeding Keir Starmer have taken a hit after the latest unpaid tax row, with her odds to be the next Labour leader drifting from 10/3 favourite to 9/1.
Angela Rayner's Odds Drift in Next Labour Leader Market
Over the past 24 hours, Angela Rayner's odds to be the Next Labour Leader have taken a drastic hit following the latest unpaid tax drama. Rayner had been the 9/2 favourite to succeed Keir Stamer as party leader on Tuesday, those odds have drifted out to 9/1 since the news broke of her underpaying stamp duty. The Deputy Prime Minister had previously been the most popular bet in this market, picking up 19% of all bets placed through Oddschecker in 2025.
In response, UK bookmakers have installed Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Wes Streeting, as the new betting favourite in the Next Labour Leader market. Streeting atop the odds boards at 11/2 (Best price with Sky Bet). The two other potential candidates priced up below 20/1 are Andy Burnham (10/1) and Yvette Cooper (12/1).
| Next Labour Leader | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wes Streeting | 11/2 | 18.2% |
| Angela Rayner | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Andy Burnham | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Yvette Cooper | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Bridget Phillipson | 20/1 | 4.8% |
Angela Rayner Backed to be Next Cabinet Minister to Leave
The tax scandal surrounding Rayner has also seen a spike in betting interest in the Next Cabinet Minister to Leave market. In the time period since the news broke, we've seen over 15 times the number of bets placed on this market compared to the previous month's total.
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Unsurprisingly, the large percentage of that traffic has been punting on Angela Rayner to be the Next Cabinet Minister to Leave. 89% of all bets placed since Wednesday morning have backed Rayner, causing her odds to be shortened from 9/1 to the 4/6 betting favourite. She has usurped Rachel Reeves at the top of the betting, who had previously been a strong 6/5 favourite.
| Next Cabinet Minister to Leave | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Angela Rayner | 4/6 | 60% |
| Rachel Reeves | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 9/1 | 10% |
| Liz Kendall | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Heidi Alexander | 12/1 | 7.7% |
When Could Keir Starmer Leave Office?
Another market that has seen a rise in traffic is the Keir Starmer Exit Date betting heat. 70% of bets placed in the last 24 hours have backed Starmer to leave his role as Prime Minister in 2026, this is an increase from the 28% of bets backing that in the two months prior. This spike in bets has not had any impact on the odds however, with Starmer to leave in 2029 or later the most likely outcome in the bookmakers opinon, with a price of 9/4.
| Keir Starmer Exit Date | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 or later | 9/4 | 18.2% |
| 2026 | 11/4 | 12.5% |
| 2028 | 9/2 | 9.1% |
| 2027 | 9/2 | 7.7% |
| 2025 | 9/1 | 4.8% |
What are the Latest Odds to Become Next Prime Minister?
Reform party leader, Nigel Farage, is the 11/4 favourite with Ladbrokes and Coral to be the next Prime Minister following Keir Starmer. Farage has dominated the betting traffic across Oddschecker in 2025 taking 52% of all bets placed through our platform. There is a steep decline in support for the second most backed this calendar year, ironically, Angela Rayner, who has picked up 7.5% of total wagers.
| Prime Minister after Keir Starmer | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Nigel Farage | 11/4 | 26.7% |
| Wes Streeting | 9/1 | 10% |
| Yvette Cooper | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Kemi Badenoch | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Angela Rayner | 12/1 | 7.7% |
You can compare British Politics odds from 25+ of the UK's best bookmakers via our dedicated page here.
