Rumours of Labour MP's plotting against Sir Keir Starmer has sparked a surge of betting interest in his exit date.
Over the course of Wednesday morning, we saw a signifcant spike in bets on Oddschecker in a number of different British Politics markets across the site.
The one picking up the most traffic was the Keir Starmer Exit Date as Prime Minister, with a staggering 97% of bets backing Starmer to leave his post in either 2025 or 2026.
In this article, we examine the latest market movements in British Politics markets including the aforementioned Keir Starmer Exit Date, Next Labour Leader, and Most Seats Won at next General Election.
What are the odds for Keir Starmer to leave his post in 2025 or 2026?
| Keir Starmer Exit Date | Best Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23/1 | 4.2% |
| 2026 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| 2027 | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| 2028 | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| 2029 or later | 13/8 | 38.1% |
Odds last updated at 15:00, Wednesday 12th November.
As mentioned above, there has been a spike in bets backing Keir Starmer to leave his post as Prime Minister in 2025 and 2026.
65% of bets have backed a 2025 exit, and 32% of bets have backed 2026 which is currently the most likely year according to bookmakers, currently priced at 1/1.
This is not a new trend however. From October 1st to November 11th, 92% of all bets on Keir Starmer's exit date had backed him to leave in either 2025 or 2026.
Starmer is currently 9/2 to make it through his full term, with the next general election scheduled to take place no later than the 15th August 2029.
William Hill currently have Keir Starmer at odds of 2/1 to make it through his full term as Prime Minister, translating to an implied probability of 33.3%.
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Who is the favourite to be the next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer?
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wes Streeting | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Nigel Farage | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| Andy Burnham | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Shabana Mahmood | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Yvette Cooper | 16/1 | 5.9% |
Odds last updated at 15:20, Wednesday 12th November.
There has also been a shake up in the odds markets to be the next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer.
Labour cabinet memeber, Wes Streeting, has seen a surge of bets backing him to replace Starmer with a 46% bet share on Wednesday.
To put that into perspective, Streeting had only picked up 9% of bets in this market in the month prior to Wednesday.
That betting support has led to Streeting's odds being cut from 6/1 to 4/1 in places and joining Nigel Farage at the top of the betting.
Farage had been as short as 2/1 in September to be the next Prime Minister, however, his price has drifted in line with the increasing pressure on Starmer, and the chance that a Labour MP may replace Starmer before the next general election.
It's a similar story in the next Labour Leader market, where Wes Streeting's odds have been cut from 6/1 to 4/1 in places to be next party leader.
Interestingly, it is Ed Miliband who has been the recipient of the largest staked bet, despite being as big as 16/1 in places.
Who are the favourites to win the Most Seats at the next General Election?
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Reform | 5/6 | 54.5% |
| Labour | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Conservatives | 11/2 | 15.4% |
| Green | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Liberal Democrats | 50/1 | 2.0% |
Odds last updated at 15:50, Wednesday 12th November.
The unrest in the Labour party has only strengthened Reform's position as betting favourites to win the Most Seats at the Next General Election.
Reform are currently priced at best odds of 5/6 to win the most seats, they have been odds-on favourites in this betting market since August 2025.
Labour are 5/2, and the Conservatives are 11/2 and have received less nearly four times less bets to win the most seats than the Green Party over the past seven days.
To track all the latest British Politics betting movements across 25+ bookmakers, check out Oddschecker's dedicated hub here.
