Robert Jenrick's odds to be next Reform party leader have been slashed following his sacking from the Conservative party.
There was explosive news from the British Poltics sphere on Thursday as Robert Jenrick was sacked from the Conservative Party for "plotting to defect" to the Reform party.
Following the sacking going public, we've seen UK bookmakers across Oddschecker quick to cut Jenrick's odds of being the Next Reform Party leader.
One bookmaker moved their price from 20/1 to 4/1 in the half an hour following the sacking, making him second-favourite in the betting.
In this article, we check out the latest odds to be Next Reform Party leader, and the Next Conservative Leader market (which Robert Jenrick was previously the betting favourite in).
Who is favourite to be Next Reform Party Leader?
| Next Reform Party Leader | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Richard Tice | 7/2 | William Hill |
| Robert Jenrick | 4/1 | Ladbrokes |
| Danny Kruger | 5/1 | Betfred |
| Zia Yusuf | 6/1 | Ladbrokes |
| Rupert Lowe | 10/1 | bet365 |
Odds last updated at 12:00pm, Thursday 15th January. Check out the full market HERE.
Richard Tice
Richard Tice remains the favourite in the betting, and it’s not hard to see why. He’s one of the most recognisable senior figures in Reform UK’s hierarchy and has already operated at the very top of the party for several years. With Nigel Farage’s role continuing to dominate headlines and strategy, Tice is viewed by bookmakers as the most “natural successor” if Reform decide they want a leader with experience of campaigning and media management. The market also reflects that if there’s any internal handover, Tice is arguably the safest continuity option.
Robert Jenrick
Robert Jenrick has rocketed into the market following Thursday’s dramatic sacking from the Conservatives, and the speed of the odds move tells its own story. Any suggestion of “plotting to defect” instantly places him on Reform’s radar, particularly as a figure with serious Westminster profile and ministerial-level recognition. One bookmaker moved their price from 20/1 to 4/1 in the half an hour after the story broke — although it’s worth noting there are still odds as big as 20/1 available elsewhere at the time of writing. If punters believe there’s real substance behind the rumours, Jenrick could remain the most volatile price in the entire market.
Danny Kruger
Danny Kruger is shorter than many would expect, but he fits a profile that appeals to both Reform’s base and bookmakers. He has a strong public identity in the broader right-of-centre political space and is seen as someone who could attract disillusioned Conservatives without appearing like a “career switcher”. His odds suggest that traders believe he’s on the list of plausible contenders if Reform want a more ideological, policy-driven leader rather than a pure media figure. At 5/1, he’s priced as a realistic challenger to the two names at the top.
Zia Yusuf
Zia Yusuf is one of the more intriguing names in the betting, largely because of his rising influence within Reform’s internal structure. While he has a lower public profile than some of the Westminster-linked candidates, he’s viewed as a key operator behind the scenes and has become increasingly associated with the party’s strategy and direction. Markets like this often shorten candidates who may not be the obvious media pick, but who are realistically positioned for a leadership role if Reform prioritise organisation and growth. At 6/1, he’s firmly in the mix.
Rupert Lowe
Rupert Lowe rounds out the top five at 10/1 and could appeal to punters looking for an outsider with momentum potential. He’s developed a reputation as a combative voice aligned with Reform’s political style and has been increasingly prominent in party conversation and grassroots circles. The price suggests he’s not currently expected to win a leadership contest — but the fact he’s in the top five shows bookmakers aren’t ruling it out either. If the race shifts towards a more populist, confrontational direction, Lowe could be one to watch.
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Who is favourite to be Next Conservative Leader?
| Next Conservative Leader | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| James Cleverly | 9/2 | bet365 |
| Katie Lam | 8/1 | Unibet |
| Robert Jenrick | 8/1 | Ladbrokes |
| Claire Coutinho | 20/1 | William Hill |
| Boris Johnson | 20/1 | Ladbrokes |
| Rupert Lowe | 20/1 | Ladbrokes |
| Nigel Farage | 20/1 | Ladbrokes |
Odds last updated at 12:15, Thursday 15th January. Find the full market HERE.
Before Thursday’s dramatic developments, Robert Jenrick had been the clear market leader to become the next Conservative Party leader, trading as short as 7/4 with bookmakers on Oddschecker.
However, his sacking for “plotting to defect” has caused an immediate reshuffle in the betting, with Jenrick drifting out to 8/1 and the race now looking far more open at the top.
With the favourite removed from contention, punters have quickly pivoted towards other senior Conservative figures — and even a few eye-catching longshots — as bookmakers adjust their prices.
James Cleverly
James Cleverly is now the clear favourite in the market at 9/2, largely because he’s one of the most realistic “unity candidates” left on the board. He has widespread name recognition, cabinet-level experience, and is seen as a relatively safe pair of hands if the party prioritises stability and broad appeal. With Jenrick out of the picture, Cleverly’s odds reflect the idea he could be the most straightforward consensus pick in a fractured field. Crucially, he’s also one of the few contenders who feels equally plausible to MPs and the wider membership.
Katie Lam
Katie Lam has emerged as one of the market movers in the reshaped betting, now priced at 8/1. That suggests bookmakers believe there is genuine internal momentum or at least growing chatter around her as a future-facing candidate. In a leadership race that could become a battle between “fresh start” and “safe hands”, Lam sits firmly in the moderniser bracket. Her price also reflects the uncertainty of the field — if no heavyweight dominates, candidates with momentum can shorten quickly.
Robert Jenrick
It’s a remarkable turnaround to see Jenrick at 8/1 after being as short as 7/4 favourite prior to his sacking. The drift in price reflects the immediate assumption that his path to leadership is now severely damaged — either politically or procedurally — depending on what happens next. But the fact he hasn’t been completely removed from the market is telling, as bookmakers leave the door slightly open for future developments or an unlikely rehabilitation. Given how quickly his Reform odds moved, Jenrick may remain one of the most volatile names across both markets.
Claire Coutinho
Claire Coutinho is positioned as one of the more interesting outsiders at 20/1, particularly for punters looking beyond the obvious front-runners. She’s been viewed as a rising figure within the party and her odds suggest she’s on the radar as a potential “next generation” option. At this price, the market isn’t saying she’s likely — but it is saying she’s plausible if the race becomes chaotic or if MPs want a different direction. If the party pivots towards a reset rather than a stop-gap leader, her odds could tighten quickly.
Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson remains a headline-grabbing entry at 20/1, and as always, his presence in the betting market speaks to one thing: he still commands attention. While a comeback would be controversial, Johnson is one of the few figures who could instantly galvanise a section of the membership and dominate media coverage. Bookmakers price him as an outsider rather than a serious frontrunner — but they also know he can’t be completely ruled out in a party that has seen unexpected twists before. If rumours of a return begin circulating, this is the type of price that could collapse rapidly.
To compare odds and bet on a range of British Politics betting markets, please visit our dedicated homepage HERE.
