Reform UK are second favourites behind the Greens to win the Gorton & Denton by-election.
Voters head to the polls today in the Gorton & Denton by-election, a contest that has shifted from a routine Labour defence into one of the most competitive parliamentary by-elections in recent memory.
While much of the focus has been on the Green Party’s surge, many punters are asking a more specific question: what odds are Reform to win the Gorton & Denton by-election - and do they represent value?
Reform UK Odds in the Gorton & Denton By-Election
Reform UK are currently priced at 10/3 with AKBets to win the seat.
That equates to an implied probability of 23.1%, meaning bookmakers believe Reform have roughly a one-in-four chance of pulling off the upset.
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Green Party | 8/13 | 61.9% |
| Reform UK | 10/3 | 23.1% |
| Labour | 9/2 | 18.2% |
Odds correct as of 10:15am Thursday 26th February. Subject to fluctuation. View the full by-election market on the Oddschecker Gorton & Denton by-election page .
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Why Are Reform UK Second Favourites in the Gorton & Denton By-Election?
Recent MRP polling and localised surveys have consistently shown Reform polling within touching distance of both Labour and the Greens - in some cases only one or two percentage points off the lead.
That has created a genuine three-way race on polling day.
However, bookmakers appear slightly more cautious than some headline polling figures suggest. In tight multi-party contests, efficiency of vote distribution matters - and by-elections can be heavily influenced by tactical voting and turnout patterns.
Where Reform face a potential obstacle is tactical consolidation. Polling indicates that some voters whose primary aim is to block a Reform victory are more inclined to back the Greens rather than Labour. In a low-turnout by-election, that kind of squeeze can prove decisive.
Still, Reform’s support appears solid and motivated - a key factor in by-election dynamics.
How Does This Compare to 2024?
At the 2024 General Election, Labour secured the seat with a commanding majority of over 13,000 votes. But by-elections often produce sharp swings against governing parties.
The resignation of former MP Andrew Gwynne, triggered by ill health and controversy over offensive messages, has transformed what should have been a comfortable hold into a genuine battleground.
For Reform, this represents an opportunity to demonstrate that Labour’s grip on urban Greater Manchester seats is not guaranteed.
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Gorton & Denton By-Election Betting Market Insight
Betting activity over the last 24 hours underlines just how competitive this market is.
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Green Party: 37% of bets
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Reform UK: 35% of bets
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Labour: 25% of bets
Reform are attracting almost as many bets as the market leaders, suggesting punters see real upset potential.
In betting terms, this is not a runaway favourite scenario — it is a live, volatile market where late movement is possible right up until polls close.
When Will the Gorton & Denton By-Election Result Be Announced?
Polling stations in Gorton & Denton are open from 7am to 10pm on Thursday 26th February 2026.
Counting is expected to begin shortly after polls close, with a declaration likely overnight or in the early hours of Friday morning, depending on turnout and counting speed.
