Check out the latest odds for Thursday's Gorton & Denton by-election and see who's favourite to win.
Voters head to the polls today in the Gorton & Denton by‑election, one of the most unpredictable Westminster contests in recent years.
What was a comfortable Labour seat at the 2024 General Election has turned into a tight three‑way race involving Labour, the Green Party and Reform UK.
With polling showing only a handful of points separating the leading parties, the betting odds offer a useful snapshot of how the race is shaping up on polling day.
Who is favourite to win the Gorton & Denton by‑election?
The Green Party are favourites to win today’s Gorton & Denton by‑election, with bookmakers giving them a 64% implied chance at odds of 4/7 based on polling, turnout and tactical voting. Reform UK follow in the betting at 7/2, while Labour sit third despite winning the seat comfortably in 2024.
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Green | 4/7 | 63.6% |
| Reform | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Labour | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| Conservatives | 600/1 | 0.2% |
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Why are the Greens favourites?
The Green Party’s position at the top of the market is driven by both polling and voter behaviour, rather than historical results. Recent constituency polling has repeatedly shown the Greens either narrowly leading or level with Labour and Reform on headline figures, while edging ahead once turnout likelihood is factored in.
Crucially, bookmakers also appear to be pricing in tactical voting. Polling suggests voters looking to block a Reform UK victory are more willing to switch to the Greens than to Labour. In a low‑turnout by‑election, that consolidation of support can be decisive — and explains why the Greens remain odds‑on favourites despite the tight three‑way race.
Why are Reform UK second favourites?
Reform UK’s position as second favourites reflects their credible route to victory if the anti‑Reform vote splits inefficiently. Polling has consistently placed Reform within a point or two of both the Greens and Labour, meaning only a small shift in turnout or late‑deciding voters could put them on top.
However, bookmakers remain slightly more cautious on Reform than some polling models. That’s because multi‑party contests can punish parties whose support is broad but not efficiently distributed. The odds suggest Reform are firmly in contention — but not the most likely winners.
Why are Labour outsiders despite holding the seat?
Labour’s odds are the most eye‑catching aspect of the market. Winning the seat comfortably in 2024 counts for less in a by‑election, where governing parties often suffer sharp swings against them. Labour have faced pressure from both sides: losing voters to the Greens on the left and Reform on the right.
Markets also reflect evidence that Labour’s support is more vulnerable to tactical erosion than that of the Greens. In a contest expected to be decided by fine margins, that vulnerability has pushed Labour out to third in the betting.
Betting Insights
Share of bets placed in the last 24 hours (Oddschecker)
- Green Party: 37%
- Reform UK: 35%
- Labour: 25%
While the Greens remain favourites, the betting data shows this is not a one‑sided market. Reform UK are attracting almost as many bets as the Greens, suggesting punters see genuine upset potential if the vote breaks their way. Labour’s quarter of all bets reflects lingering belief in a late recovery, but also underlines their outsider status relative to the other two main contenders.
When will the Gorton & Denton by‑election result be announced?
Polling stations in Gorton & Denton close at 10pm GMT tonight. Counting is expected to begin shortly afterwards, with the result likely to be declared overnight or in the early hours of Friday morning, depending on turnout and counting speed.
