Andy Burnham has been backed into 10/11 favourite to be the next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer.
Burnham’s odds have been cut from 4/1 to 10/11 over the past 24 hours in the Next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer market, making him the clear favourite with bookmakers.
The move follows a major development in Westminster after Labour MP Josh Simons announced he would resign his Makerfield seat, potentially giving Burnham a route back into Parliament. Reuters reported that Simons’ decision was designed to allow Burnham to return to national politics and potentially challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership.
Who is Favourite to be Next Prime Minister?
Andy Burnham is the favourite to be the next Prime Minister after Keir Starmer, with a latest best price of 13/5. Angela Rayner follows at 5/1, while Ed Miliband and Wes Streeting are also prominent in the betting.
| Candidate | Latest Best Odds |
|---|---|
| Andy Burnham | 13/5 |
| Angela Rayner | 5/1 |
| Ed Miliband | 10/1 |
| Wes Streeting | 12/1 |
| Alistair Carns | 18/1 |
| Nigel Farage | 25/1 |
Burnham odds cut in next Labour leader market
The betting move is mirrored in the Next Labour Leader market, where Burnham’s odds have shortened from 3/1 to 1/1.
That market shift suggests punters now believe Burnham has moved from being an outside option to a serious contender, provided he can win a by-election and return to Westminster.
Burnham has said he will seek permission to stand in the Greater Manchester by-election, while The Guardian reported that Starmer will not attempt to block him from standing in Makerfield.
Why does Makerfield matter for Andy Burnham?
Makerfield has become the key battleground in Burnham’s route to No 10.
Burnham is not currently an MP, which has been the major obstacle to any Labour leadership challenge. Under Labour rules, a leadership election can be triggered if the leader resigns or if 20% of Labour MPs nominate a challenger, currently equivalent to 81 MPs, according to the Institute for Government.
The Makerfield by-election could therefore decide whether Burnham has a credible route back into Parliament before any formal contest to replace Starmer.
Reuters reported that Simons won Makerfield in 2024 with a majority of 5,399 over Reform UK, meaning the by-election is likely to be closely watched given Reform’s recent polling strength and momentum in Labour heartlands.
Makerfield latest odds
According to the latest Oddschecker market, Labour are 4/6 favourites to win Makerfield, with Reform second in the betting at 5/4.
| Party | Latest best odds |
|---|---|
| Labour | 4/6 |
| Reform | 5/4 |
| Green | 150/1 |
| Conservatives | 500/1 |
| Liberal Democrats |
500/1 |
The market suggests Burnham would be expected to win the seat if selected as Labour’s candidate, but Reform are short enough in the betting to make Makerfield a live contest rather than a formality.
Starmer still odds-on to leave in 2026
Keir Starmer is currently 1/5 to leave office in 2026, a price that implies an 83.3% chance before bookmaker margin.
That is still a strong indication that bookmakers expect Starmer to depart next year, even though his odds have eased from the extreme pressure earlier in the week.
AP reported that Starmer’s leadership has come under intense pressure after heavy Labour election losses, with more than 90 Labour lawmakers calling for him to step down and several junior ministers quitting.
The latest betting move suggests the market is no longer just pricing in whether Starmer goes, but increasingly focusing on whether Burnham can clear the Makerfield hurdle and become the Labour figure best placed to replace him.
