Check out the latest Makerfield by-election odds as Labour and Andy Burnham remain the strong favourites.
Labour are the clear favourites in the latest Makerfield by-election odds, with the party currently priced at 2/5 to hold the seat.
Reform are second in the betting at 14/5, while Restore Britain are now 12/1 after attracting sustained interest from Oddschecker users over the past week.
The by-election is one of the most closely watched contests in British politics, with Makerfield being able to help determine Britain’s next Prime Minister if Burnham wins the seat and then launches a challenge to Keir Starmer.
Who is favourite to win the Makerfield by-election?
Labour remain firm favourites to win the Makerfield by-election at 2/5, with Reform second in the betting at 14/5. Restore Britain are third at 12/1, despite taking strong betting support, while the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Workers Party and Greens are all long shots at 1000/1.
When is the Makerfield by-election?
The Makerfield by-election will take place on Thursday 18 June 2026, with polling stations open from 7am to 10pm.
Wigan Council’s voter information page confirms that the count will take place after polls close at 10pm, with the result expected on Friday 19 June 2026. Voters casting their ballot in person will also need accepted photo ID.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons, creating a route for Burnham to return to Parliament. Wigan Council states that Simons’ resignation triggered the contest.
Labour, Reform and Restore Britain dominate betting
The Makerfield market has become a three-party betting story.
Labour lead the way with 40% of bets over the last seven days, but Reform have attracted 30% and Restore Britain have taken 25%.
That betting split suggests punters still see Labour as the most likely winner, but there is strong interest in both challengers.
The Guardian reported that cost of living, declining high streets and public services are among the top local priorities for Makerfield voters. The same report said many residents are disillusioned with the political system, with Burnham’s candidacy seen by some as a chance for change and by others as a potential stepping stone back to Westminster.
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Why Makerfield matters for Andy Burnham
Makerfield matters because it could give Burnham a route back into the House of Commons.
Burnham is not currently an MP, which has been the major barrier to any immediate Labour leadership challenge. If he wins Makerfield, he would return to Westminster and strengthen his position as a potential successor to Keir Starmer.
If Burnham is elected, he is expected to move quickly to challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership. Makerfield was held by Labour in 2024 by 5,399 votes over Reform, while Reform has since made major gains locally in Wigan.
Restore Britain add another twist to Makerfield odds
Restore Britain’s presence has added uncertainty to the contest.
The party has attracted 25% of bets over the last seven days, despite sitting third in the betting at 12/1.
Reform and Restore Britain have clashed during the build-up to the by-election, with the split on the populist right becoming one of the key subplots of the campaign.
That dynamic could matter if Reform are to close the gap on Labour. A divided anti-Labour vote may make Burnham’s task easier, but the level of betting interest in Restore Britain shows punters do not see them as irrelevant to the outcome.
Next Labour leader odds: Burnham now 8/15 favourite
The Makerfield by-election is closely linked to the Next Labour Leader market, where Andy Burnham is now the 8/15 favourite.
Burnham’s position in the leadership betting reflects the importance of this by-election. A victory in Makerfield would give him the parliamentary platform needed to challenge Starmer, while a defeat would seriously damage his route back to national politics.
Attention in Westminster has turned towards Makerfield on 18 June, with Burnham expected to use a win as a springboard for a leadership challenge.
