Betting on the Christmas number one has become serious business. Last year there were over 6,700 bets placed on the market, with some punters staking well in excess of £1,000. The X Factor has dominated the market in recent history, producing seven number one hits in the past 11 years, whilst three charitable entries as well as Rage Against the Machine make up the other four.
X Factor expected to be dominant
Simon Cowell’s pulling out all the stops this year to wrestle back the Christmas number one crown. Not only will the song be available straight after the final show on 11th December but it’s being written by regular chart topper Ed Sheeran. The X Factor has been dominant in the market for over a decade and Oddschecker users have been heavily backing the show to be top the charts at Christmas in 2016. 23% of bets have been placed on the X Factor winner being number one this Christmas with best-price 2/1 still available.
How the Christmas Chart would look if it was based on bets placed
Never underestimate charity
Band Aid was the first of the charity campaigns fighting for the top spot at Christmas. In recent years similar campaigns have not only been very successful in raising money and awareness for various charities but they’ve also received enough backing to top the charts on numerous occasions. Last year the Lewisham & Greenwich NHS Choir beat Justin Bieber for the top spot, before that Justice Collective and Military Wives & Gareth Malone tasted the same success. The London Hospice Choir song ‘The Living Years’ have yet to enter the charts but their odds have been cut from 20/1 (21st October) to 2/1 . Even with the odds shortening so rapidly only 8% of bets have been placed on the charity entry. The Military Wives choir have been prominent in the market since the betting opened, however in the last week their odds of a second win have drifted to 25/1 from 11/1.
Battle of the adverts
The hype surrounding the John Lewis advert hasn’t propelled the featured song up the market as expected. Featured band The Vaults have drifted from 12/1 to 25/1 in the last week. Sainsbury’s are competing with John Lewis for the best advert in 2016 and since James Corden announced all profits from the featured song will go towards Great Ormond Street Hospital, they’re now in competition for Christmas number one. James Corden has had just under of 7% of bets and can be backed at 14/1.
What the charts are saying
There’s still time for a chart-climber to take the top spot, this year only three songs have debuted in the charts at number one. The general trend this year has seen songs entering the charts and then taking on average of five weeks before hitting the number one spot. Justin Bieber claimed three of the top five positions in last year’s count and he looks set to be prominent again this year. He’s been lurking in the charts for a while now, sitting in 15th place for the last three weeks and has seen his odds for Christmas number one be slashed from 66/1 to as short as 11/1 in the last week.
Rage Against the Machine repeat
A public campaign saw Rage Against the Machine surprisingly claim the top spot back in 2009 and two years ago saw internet sensation ‘The Wealdstone Raider’ crash the top five. Public
campaigns could propel numerous singles to the top this year, including Terry Wogan (16/1), James Shinny Davenport (12/1), David Bowie (25/1) , Inspiral Carpets (7/1) and Annie Humphrey (25/1).