With just over a week until the Nobel Peace Prize winner is announced, who is favourite to win?
The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced at 10:00 BST on Friday 9 October at the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo.
The committee chair, Jørgen Watne Frydnes, will read out the name, and it will be streamed live on the Nobel Prize's official channels. The Norwegian Nobel Committee has 287 candidates this year, 208 individuals and 79 organisations. It won't confirm any of them, because nominations stay secret for 50 years.
Ugandan climate activist Vanessa Nakate is favourite ahead of Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms. Donald Trump, who has campaigned for the prize in public, is well down the list, although he's the name punters are backing most.
Last year's winner was María Corina Machado, honoured for her work for democratic rights in Venezuela.
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 Odds
Who's Favourite to Win the Nobel Peace Prize 2026?
| Selection | Best odds | Best at | Worst odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Nakate | 19/10 | BetGoodwin, BetAhoy, BetTom | 9/5 |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 3/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 21/10 |
| Doctors Without Borders | 4/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 7/2 |
| Minneapolis | 11/2 | BetGoodwin, BetAhoy, BetTom | 11/2 |
| David Attenborough | 15/2 | BetGoodwin, BetAhoy, BetTom | 15/2 |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 15/2 | BetGoodwin, BetAhoy, BetTom | 343/50 |
| UNRWA | 8/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 8/1 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 17/2 | BetGoodwin, BetAhoy, BetTom | 6/1 |
| Pope Leo XIV | 12/1 | BetGoodwin, BetAhoy, BetTom | 8/1 |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 12/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 15/2 |
| Donald Trump | 12/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 10/3 |
| International Court of Justice | 16/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 13/2 |
Nakate is favourite at a best price of 19/10, which implies a chance of about 34%. She's a UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador who has campaigned for climate justice for Africa, and she was nominated for the prize in 2023.
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms are second favourite at 3/1. They are volunteer networks that have run communal kitchens, medical care and evacuations through Sudan's civil war, which began in April 2023. They won the Rafto Prize and a Right Livelihood Award in 2025. They're also on this year's shortlist from the director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, a personal pick from someone with no link to the committee. They have been talked about before, though, and were passed over in both 2024 and 2025.
Doctors Without Borders are third favourite at 4/1, having drifted from 15/4 to 11/2 at BetGoodwin, BetAhoy and BetTom on 24 September.
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 Odds: The Outsiders
Minneapolis is 11/2 after a formal nomination for the city's peaceful mass protests against the federal immigration crackdown there over the winter. No city has ever won.
David Attenborough, who turned 100 in May, is 15/2, and he was last nominated in 2022.
Trump has a best price of 12/1 but is as short as 10/3 with some bookmakers. He tops Oddschecker's Most Popular Bets list, ahead of Nato, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, MrBeast and Pope Leo XIV. The US has been at war with Iran since February, though, and the acting PRIO director, Haakon Gjerløw, was blunt about it: "A sitting president waging a war against Iran is an impossible candidate."
When is the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 Announced?
The winner will be named at 11:00 local time, 10:00 BST, on Friday 9 October. The prize is presented at Oslo City Hall on 10 December, the anniversary of Alfred Nobel's death. The committee's five members are appointed by the Norwegian parliament, and they make their final decision in October.
