2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump And Joe Biden Battle For Key States

2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump And Joe Biden Battle For Key States

The Democrats now have an 88% chance of flipping a Donald Trump state in 2020.

  • Bookmakers make it highly likely the Democrats will flip a state won by the Republicans in 2016.
  • The odds suggest Donald Trump will struggle to flip any Clinton states, with Nevada, New Hampshire and Minnesota his main chances.

 

2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Key States Betting Overview

Joe Biden is the clear favourite in the 2020 US election odds market, and a key reason contributing to his marketing dominance is the likelihood he will flip a 2016 Donald Trump state. According to the bookmakers, the Democrats now have an 87.7% chance of flipping a state won by the Republicans in 2016.

Despite Donald Trump making inroads in a few states won by Hillary Clinton, the odds imply he’s only got a 32.8% chance of flipping a Clinton state. We break down the percentages below, but Trump’s main chances lie in Nevada, New Hampshire and Minnesota.

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As mentioned, Joe Biden tops the US Presidential election betting market, and Biden’s current odds imply he’s got a 66.7% chance of winning the November election.

Despite just over 52% of bookmakers on Oddschecker's odds grid cutting the price of Donald Trump winning the 2020 election in the last 24 hours, his odds still imply he’s only got a 34.8% chance of securing another term.

Even though Joe Biden’s odds imply he’s the likely winner of the 2020 election, if looking at individual bets placed, bettors clearly disagree with the bookmakers. We reported yesterday that Donald Trump accounted for more than double the individual bets for Joe Biden over the weekend, and this trend continued on Monday.

On Monday, just over 67% of bets placed on the 2020 election market were on Donald Trump winning, with just 29% being placed on Joe Biden.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

 

Best Odds

Implied % Chance

Donald Trump

15/8

34.8%

Joe Biden

1/2

66.7%

 

2020 US Presidential Election Betting

 

% Of Wagers on Monday

% Of Wagers October

Total % Of Wagers

Donald Trump

67%

61%

53%

Joe Biden

29%

32%

23%

 

2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump’s Odds Of Flipping A Clinton State

As mentioned previously, bookmakers believe Donald Trump has a 32.8% chance of flipping a state previously won by Hillary Clinton. The current odds of him achieving this are hovering around the 2/1 mark. See below his chances of flipping each state:

 

Republicans Odds

Democrat Odds 

% Chance of being flipped

California

18/1

1/33

5.3%

Colorado

9/1

1/12

10%

Connecticut

12/1

1/25

7.7%

Delaware

14/1

1/33

6.7%

Hawaii

16/1

1/50

5.9%

Illinois

12/1

1/50

7.7%

Maine

13/2

1/10

13.3%

Maryland

16/1

1/50

5.9%

Massachusetts

16/1

1/66

5.9%

Minnesota

3/1

33/10

25%

Nevada

5/2

1/2

28.6%

New Hampshire

7/2

1/4

22.2%

New Jersey

14/1

1/33

6.7%

New Mexico

19/2

2/17

9.5%

New York

16/1

1/33

5.9%

Oregon

10/1

1/20

9.1%

Rhode Island

12/1

1/50

7.7%

Vermont

14/1

1/50

6.7%

Virginia

9/1

1/16

10%

Washington

12/1

1/25

7.7%

In the last 10 days, the odds suggest that the Republicans have gathered momentum in Illinois, Minnesota and Nevada. The chances of the Republicans flipping Illinois has moved from 5.9% to 7.7% in this time period. In the same time, the chances of flipping Minnesota have moved from 20% to 25%, and Nevada has gone from 26.7% to 28.6%.

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2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Joe Biden’s Odds Of Flipping A Trump State

 

Republicans Odds

Democrat Odds 

% Chance of being flipped

Alabama

1/33

18/1

5.9%

Alaska

1/6

13/2

13.3%

Arizona

6/4

4/6

60%

Arkansas

1/16

14/1

6.7%

Florida

4/5

1/1

50%

Georgia

4/6

13/10

43.5%

Idaho

1/50

16/1

5.9%

Indiana

1/12

9/1

10%

Iowa

4/6

6/4

40%

Kansas

1/20

12/1

7.7%

Kentucky

1/33

14/1

6.7%

Louisiana

1/33

14/1

6.7%

Michigan

11/4

7/20

74.1%

Mississippi

1/33

14/1

6.7%

Missouri

1/7

7/1

12.5%

Montana

1/14

9/1

10%

Nebraska

1/33

12/1

7.7%

North Carolina

1/1

41/50

54.9%

North Dakota

1/50

16/1

5.9%

Ohio

1/2

7/4

36.4%

Oklahoma

1/50

14/1

6.7%

Pennsylvania

21/10

21/50

70.4%

South Carolina

1/9

7/1

12.5%

South Dakota

1/50

16/1

5.9%

Tennessee

1/33

12/1

7.7%

Texas

4/11

5/2

28.6%

Utah

1/25

10/1

9.1%

West Virginia

1/50

16/1

5.9%

Wisconsin

9/4

21/50

70.4%

Wyoming

1/66

16/1

5.9%

According to the bookmakers, the Democrats best chances of flipping a Donald Trump state are Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Despite it looking a lot more likely Joe Biden will be able to win over a few more key states, his odds have dropped in a selection of Trump states since we last reported on the odds just 10 days ago. Below are a few of the bigger moves in that time period.

  • The chance of Alaska being flipped has dropped from 20% to 13.3%.
  • The chance of Florida being flipped has dropped from 57.9% to 50%
  • The chance of Michigan being flipped has dropped from 77.8% to 74.1%
  • The chance of Ohio being flipped has dropped from 44.4% to 36.4%
  • The chance of Pennsylvania being flipped has dropped from 73.5% to 70.4%
  • The chance of Wisconsin being flipped has dropped from 74.1% to 70.4%.

 

2020 US Election: Betting On Key States

Georgia has been one of the most bet on states heading into the 2020 US election, in the previous seven days, 60% of bets have been on the Republicans winning the state. 

Another popular state has been Arizona, again in the last seven days the Republicans have been the popular bet, accounting for 59% of bets placed in the market. 

The Republicans have also dominated the betting in Ohio, just over 70% of bets placed in the market over the last seven days have been on Donald Trump winning the state. 

The betting in Florida is pretty even, in the last seven days, just under 55% of bets have been placed on the Republicans winning.